Plenty of folks still doubt the Indiana Hoosiers, if for no other reason than that they are the Indiana Hoosiers. Those folks are gladly backing the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, and yet this spread remains north of a touchdown.
My Alabama vs. Indiana predictions and college football picks also back the Tide, but they do not do so with much actual confidence in the blueblood program.
Alabama vs Indiana predictions for the Rose Bowl CFP Quarterfinal
Who will win the Rose Bowl?
If Alabama can genuinely pass protect, it can beat anyone in the country. The problem is, even the Tide’s pass protection is flawed. That should be a fatal flaw against Indiana.
The Hoosiers rank No. 12 in the country in damage done via sacks, per CFB-graphs.com. They notched five sacks in the Big Ten championship against Ohio State, six at Oregon and seven in their coming out party against Illinois.
Do not bet on Alabama shutting down Indiana’s pass rush. And thus, do not bet on Alabama to win.
Alabama vs Indiana best bet: Alabama +7.5 (-125)
Alabama is an immensely flawed football team that was fortunate for Oklahoma’s mistakes in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Indiana is one of the most fundamentally sound teams we have seen in years; those mistakes should not be gifted.
But the Tide also have one of the highest ceilings in the country, and desperation should bring out their best side, the passing game. This hook begs for a backdoor cover from an explosive passing attack in the second half.
If Alabama plays with that desperation out of the gates, perhaps the Rose Bowl could be our most interesting quarterfinal. The Tide have no reasonable rushing attack. If they wholly commit to the pass, the ensuing variance could spark an upset.
But how many coaches are bold enough to plan to throw the ball four dozen times against the No. 4 passing defense in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback? Kalen DeBoer believes in his passing schemes, but that may be too much audacity even for him.
Once Indiana has forced the issue, though, particularly with its own balanced offense that excels both in creating quality drives and converting them into points, then DeBoer should get desperate. And Alabama has the playmakers to create some drama in the second half.
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Alabama vs Indiana same-game parlay
Alabama’s passing attack will be the key to a backdoor cover. Every word of that sentence encourages both an Over and faith in Ty Simpson’s desperation.
Alabama vs Indiana SGP
- Alabama +7.5
- Over 48.5
- Ty Simpson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Our deep-ball SGP: Rolling with the tide
As Alabama tries to come back against Indiana, the Hoosiers should be willing to give cushions to Tide tight end Josh Cuevas so as to protect over-the-top throws to Alabama’s receivers. And those modest gains will not be enough to get Alabama over the top on the scoreboard.
Alabama vs Indiana SGP
- Alabama +7.5
- Indiana moneyline
- Over 48.5
- Ty Simpson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Josh Cuevas Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
Alabama vs Indiana odds
- Spread: Alabama +7.5 | Indiana -7.5
- Moneyline: Alabama +210 | Indiana -255
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Alabama vs Indiana trend to know
Indiana went 0-2 against the spread this season as a two-score favorite. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Indiana.
How to watch Alabama vs Indiana
| Location | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date | Thursday, January 1, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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