Week 2 of the college football season has no shortage of major Group of Six matchups, and several games could affect the College Football Playoff race.
The biggest game featured in my Group of Six picks this week is Memphis vs. Boise State, with both programs expected to make CFP pushes this season.
My latest G6 college football picks are also eyeing two service academies and a road upset.
Group of 6 college football picks for Week 2
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 South Florida vs  Army |
Army -3.5 |
51% |
 UTSA vs  Texas State |
UTSA ML |
45% |
 UNLVvs  North Texas |
UNLV -3.5 |
48% |
 Memphis vs  Boise State |
Memphis +10.5 |
56% |
 Navy vs  FAU |
Navy -4.5 |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
South Florida vs Army: Army -3.5
Brian Hartline's tenure at South Florida nearly got off to a rough start, with the Bulls leading FIU just 6-0 heading into the fourth quarter in Week 1. While USF pulled out a 19-9 win, Hartline's program finished with just 208 total yards.
Army will win by double digits if USF has a similar performance this week. Jeff Monken's triple-option attack ran for 569 yards in Week 1, the fourth-most in school history, and had the fourth-highest offensive success rate in the country (65.3%).
The Bulls were last in the American in offensive explosiveness last week (0.649) and came away with a win due to turnover luck (+3 turnover margin). Against Army QB Cale Hellums, who had just six turnover-worthy plays last year, that turnover luck is unlikely to repeat.
With how discombobulated USF looked in Week 1, I would take Army to cover -5.5 or better. Army is also one of Brad Powers' top picks this week.
UTSA vs Texas State: UTSA moneyline
Two of the best G6 offenses meet in an in-state battle that could catch the eye of Power Four athletic directors at schools in the south-central region. While Texas State's GJ Kinne doesn't mess around on offense, UTSA's Jeff Traylor could run away with this game in San Marcos.
The Road Runners rank 31st on offense, per SP+, with the steady Owen McCown under center, who's accounted for 62 TDs since 2024, and one of the most dynamic backs in the G6, Will Henderson III.
Henderson's big-play ability (56.6% career breakaway rate) should expose a Texas State defense that was one of the worst in the G6 in defensive success rate allowed last season (50%).
Although both teams are known for their offense, the defense will make the difference for UTSA on the road. I would take the Road Runners to win outright at a 50% probability or better.
UNLV vs North Texas: UNLV -3.5
It's hard to believe North Texas is getting this much respect (I would take UNLV to cover up to -6.5). Sure, the Mean Green are at home, and they had a fine first half against Indiana in Week 1, but this isn't a team that's expected to get bowl-eligible in Neal Brown's first season.
Every key player and coach from North Texas' 12-win team last year is gone, and the Mean Green came into the season ranked 132nd in the country in returning production (32%).
Meanwhile, UNLV bounced back from its Week 0 loss by going on the road and beating Hawaii by double digits last Saturday.
A North Texas defense that is 123rd by SP+ won't be able to handle the one-two punch of Jai'Den Thomas and Jackson Arnold on the ground (330 combined rushing yards, 12 runs of 10+ yards).
Memphis vs Boise State: Memphis +10.5
In a few months, we may look back on this as the game that has the biggest impact on the G6 College Football Playoff race, with Memphis and Boise State being among the favorites to win the American and Pac-12, respectively.
With Boise State coming off a tough loss to Oregon, the Broncos could be susceptible to a Tigers team with a mean run game and a dominant front seven. Memphis is averaging 265 rushing yards per game, with Jaylin Carter producing 6.15 yards per carry after contact, and its defense is racking up 23.5 pressures and 4.5 sacks per game.
If Memphis can get its run game going and pressure Maddux Madsen, Charles Huff's team can keep this within 10 points (and I would take the Tigers to cover +8.5 or better).
Navy vs FAU: Navy -4.5
It doesn't appear FAU has fixed its defense in Year 2 under Zach Kittley. Last year, the Owls were near the bottom of the G6 in defensive points per opportunity (4.58) and finished ranked 131st by SP+. In Week 1 against Florida, FAU allowed 624 total yards and gave up 66 points — that included allowing the Gators to score points on 10 of 11 drives.
The run defense was especially ugly, with Florida running for 281 yards and 6.9 per carry. Navy averaged the same per carry last week against Towson, but finished with 506 rushing yards — 200 of those came from new starting QB Braxton Woodson.
Navy was Top 10 in the country in offensive success rate last week (63.3%), and Woodson should have no trouble shredding FAU's defense with the triple-option. I'd take Navy to cover more than double this spread (-9.5).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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