College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 5

Penn State hosts Oregon at Happy Valley to headline the Week 5 college football slate, and my ATS picks are taking the points with the Ducks.

Chris Gregory - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Gregory • Betting Analyst
Sep 23, 2025 • 11:55 ET • 4 min read
Dante Moore Oregon Ducks Big Ten college football
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Week 5 features one of the best slates of college football odds of the season, with a handful of high-stakes ranked matchups across the nation.

That includes Alabama taking on Georgia in Athens and Oregon heading to Happy Valley for a Top-6 matchup against Penn State. I pick a side for all of the best games in my Week 5 ATS college football picks below.

College football picks against the spread for Week 5

Matchup Pick
Florida State Florida State vs Virginia Virginia Florida State (-6.5)
TCU TCU vs Arizona State Arizona State TCU (+2.5)
Notre Dame Notre Dame vs Arkansas Arkansas Notre Dame (-3.5)
USC USC vs Illinois Illinois Illinois (+6.5)
Indiana Indiana vs Iowa Iowa Indiana (-7.5)
Auburn Auburn vs Texas A&M Texas A&M Texas A&M (-6.5)
LSU LSU vs Mississippi Mississippi Mississippi (-1.5)
Ohio State Ohio State vs Washington Washington Washington (+8.5)
Alabama Alabama vs Georgia Georgia Georgia (-2.5)
Oregon Oregon vs Penn State Penn State Oregon (+3.5)

Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 9-23.

Covers NCAAF Weekly Challenge

Expert Week 5 CFB ATS picks

Florida State (-6.5) vs Virginia: Florida State -6.5

I'd probably take the points if this went beyond a touchdown, but FSU will be eager to play a real team after smacking around Kent State and East Texas A&M (143-13 combined score).

TCU vs Arizona State (-2.5): TCU +2.5

With 1,000 yards and 11 passing TDs through three games, I'm putting my faith in Josh Hoover and a TCU offense that scored 48 and 35 against its two FBS opponents. 

Notre Dame (-4.5) vs Arkansas: Notre Dame -4.5

I understand having doubts about Notre Dame, but Arkansas doesn't compare to the likes of Notre Dame and Miami. I'll lay the small number. 

USC (-6.5) vs Illinois: Illinois +6.5

It would be easy to pile on Illinois after last week's showing, but USC failed to cover last week after giving up 31 to Michigan State. I'll buy low on the Illini and hope last week's game said more about Indiana. 

Indiana (-7.5) vs Iowa: Indiana -7.5

Speaking of, the Hoosiers made ranked Illinois look like an FCS team, and that momentum should carry over against Iowa.

Auburn vs Texas A&M (-6.5): Texas A&M -6.5

A second straight tough road environment will take its toll on Auburn. Lay the number so long it stays under a touchdown.

LSU vs Mississippi (-1.5): Mississippi -1.5

I've been suspicious of LSU since the media's initial push to rank it No. 1 in the country. On the road against an undefeated SEC foe, this is the perfect opportunity for those suspicions to materialize. 

Ohio State (-8.5) vs Washington: Washington +8.5

This number has crashed from the -14 opener because Washington is better than we expected and also hasn't lost at home since 2021. I do think that changes, but it won't be by a wide margin in Julian Sayin's first road test. 

Alabama vs Georgia (-2.5): Georgia -2.5

I wholeheartedly expected this line to be in the 4-6 range, so seeing it under a field goal makes this an easy decision. Georgia's comeback win at Tennessee proves to me that this is the team to beat in the SEC.

Oregon vs Penn State (-3.5): Oregon +3.5

Another year, another chance for James Franklin to prove he can win the big one. Happy Valley at night is no joke, but this pick comes down to trust — and I trust Dan Lanning more. 


Covers college football betting tools


My college football ATS/ML record is 16-18 this season.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Chris Gregory Covers.com
Betting Analyst

In his four years on the Covers editorial team, Chris Gregory has helped bolster the site’s golf and college football coverage. He brings a journalism and marketing background to his work as a Publishing Editor and can be found across our site covering the Masters, college football futures, and more.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo