In Lane Kiffin's first "Saban Bowl," LSU hosts Alabama on the first Saturday in November at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, La., at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Tigers are 5.5-point home favorites in Death Valley, and my Alabama vs. LSU prediction and college football picks expect Kiffin to end the Crimson Tide's rivalry winning streak.
Alabama vs LSU prediction
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Early Alabama vs LSU spread pick: LSU -5.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide have won 13 of their last 15 games against the LSU Tigers, including three straight, but the Tigers can put an end to that dominance in Year 1 under Kiffin. With Alabama's recent struggles and LSU surging, I like the Tigers to cover up to -6.5 at home.
Since losing to Kentucky, LSU has outscored its last two SEC opponents 69-17, behind improved offensive play. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been playing far cleaner and now ranks fourth nationally in QBR (85.3) and 12th in adjusted completion percentage (79.5%).
With Leavitt playing his best football and the emergence of Jackson Harris (480 receiving yards and seven TDs in his last four SEC games), the Tigers should take advantage of a Crimson Tide defense ranked 78th in pass success rate (44.3%).
LSU is also catching Alabama at a perfect time, with the Tide losing two of their last three games and failing to cover in all three. The lack of playmakers around Keelon Russell will be a killer against an elite LSU defense.
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Early Alabama vs LSU total pick: Under 52.5
Kiffin is known for his offenses, but it's LSU's defense that could propel it to a College Football Playoff berth this season. The Tigers have held six of eight opponents to 17 points or fewer, and the only two times they've given up more, they were on the road.
With LSU in Death Valley, I'd take the Under at 51.5 or better against an Alabama offense that has been a mess lately. Despite Russell's best efforts, offensive line issues and unreliable playmakers (aside from Ryan Coleman-Williams, who could be back for this game) have derailed the Tide's offense.
Against defenses ranked top 20 by SP+, Alabama is averaging 13.5 points per game. LSU's defense is ranked sixth by SP+ and fourth nationally in havoc rate (22.2%).
And while I expect Leavitt to find success against the Crimson Tide, this is the best defense LSU has faced this season. The Tide are 20th nationally in available yards percentage (37.7%) and should keep the Tigers from scoring more than 30 points.
Alabama vs LSU odds
- Alabama vs. LSU spread: LSU -5.5
- Alabama vs. LSU moneyline: Alabama 34%, LSU 66%
- Alabama vs. LSU Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Alabama vs LSU
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Baton Rouge, La.
- Venue: Tiger Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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