Two of college football's most prominent programs meet for a second straight season when Notre Dame hosts Miami on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC at Notre Dame Stadium in Notre Dame, Ind.
The Fighting Irish are 5.5-point home favorites, but my Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks expect the Hurricanes to cover again this season against Marcus Freeman's team.
Miami vs Notre Dame prediction
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Miami vs Notre Dame spread pick: Miami +5.5
From 1971 to 1990, the Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish played almost every season, with the Irish dominating the 70s and the Hurricanes dominating the 80s.
After just four matchups from 1991 to 2024, these two juggernauts are playing for a second straight season after Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 last year.
While I'm not sure an outright win is in the cards for Mario Cristobal's team this year, I do like Miami to cover for a second straight season at +3.5 or better. The biggest reason is the weapons around Darian Mensah.
Mensah and CJ Carr are arguably the two best QBs in the country this season, but Mensah has so much more around him. The Hurricanes' offense leads college football in net adjusted EPA per play and ranks No. 2 in success rate (52.4%), thanks in large part to Mensah's playmakers.
With an All-American in Malachi Toney, a top running back duo, and a star offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson, Miami can push a Notre Dame defense ranked 38th in pass success rate (41%) enough to keep it close in South Bend.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early Miami vs Notre Dame total pick: Over 56.5
When you have two elite quarterbacks going toe-to-toe, it's hard not to take the Over, though I'd only play it up to 57.5.
Mensah leads the country in QBR (90.3), adjusted completion percentage (86.2%), and TD passes (25), while Carr ranks eighth in QBR (82.6), 11th in big-time throw rate (6.9%), and 18th in TD passes (18).
These two are guiding offenses that are both top five nationally in pass success rate and available yards percentage, with Notre Dame leading the country in points per opportunity (5.04) and Miami ranking second (5.0).
Miami's pass defense is also a huge question, ranking 110th in EPA per dropback. That has led to some high-scoring games, and the Hurricanes are 7-1 to the Over this season as a result.
And Notre Dame has hit the Over in both of its games this season against teams ranked top 50 by SP+.
Miami vs Notre Dame odds
- Miami vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -5.5
- Miami vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Miami 36%, Notre Dame 64%
- Miami vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 56.5
How to watch Miami vs Notre Dame
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Notre Dame, Ind.
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
