College Football Odds and Staff Picks 2023: Take Long Look at Jordan Travis in Heisman Race

College football Week 0 kicks off this weekend, which means the road to the College Football Playoff is soon underway, as is the focus on National Championship odds.

There is certainly no shortage of people dissecting the bevy of college football odds and sharing their college football plays, but we've got something nobody else has — the official college football picks from the Covers staff!

We've polled our best CFB betting minds for their favorite plays for the upcoming season, getting their favorite to win the National Championship, predicted Heisman Trophy winner, and favorite college football futures play.

Check out where our crew is leaning this year — and then feel free to tail us (or fade us) once the season gets underway!

2023 college football picks

Writer	Champion	Heisman	Fave future
Andrew Caley	LSU	Jordan Travis	FSU to make CFP Utah to win Pac-12
Jared Hochman	Texas	Drew Allar	Colorado U3.5 wins
Douglas Farmer	Michigan	Michael Penix Jr.	Air Force to win MWC
Chris Hatfield	LSU	Cade Klubnik	Louisville to win ACC
JD Yonke	Georgia	Jordan Travis	NIU O5.5 wins
Rob Paul	Alabama	Jordan Travis	Austin Reed most pass yards
Ed Scimia	Georgia	Caleb Williams	Syracuse U6.5 wins
Jason Ence	Georgia	Caleb Williams	Texas U9.5 wins
Jeremy Jones	Texas	Quinn Ewers	Kentucky O7 wins

Covers staff college football picks

Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst (@Covers_Caley)

• National champion: LSU Tigers (+1,400 )
• Heisman Trophy: Jordan Travis, QB, FSU (+1,600 )
• Favorite future: Florida State to make CFP (+380 )
• Bonus future: Utah to win Pac-12 (+650 )

Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge couldn’t have gone better: He led the LSU Tigers to an SEC West title, which included a huge win over Nick Saban and Alabama. Now, he returns with a massively talented team in Year 2.

They have an elite QB in Jaylen Daniels, and arguably the best defender in the country in Harold Perkins Jr, but as you can see, I’m very high on the Florida State Seminoles as well. Jordan Travis is primed for a huge year; he’s coming off a season where he threw for 3,214 yards, with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding 417 yards and seven scores on the ground. Plus he’s got the support of one of the best offensive lines in the nation. If the Seminoles can get through the season with just one loss and claim an ACC Championship, I love their odds of earning a playoff spot this season.

Out West, the soon-to-be-defunct Pac-12 should end with a bang! But while everyone is talking about USC, Oregon, and Washington, they are maybe overlooking the two-time conference champion Utah Utes. If Cam Rising is healthy for the start of Pac-12 play, this Utes team will be one of the deepest and most experienced — not only in the conference... but in the country.

Jared Hochman, Senior Publishing Editor (@JLHoch)

• National champion: Texas Longhorns (+2,500 )
• Heisman Trophy: Drew Allar, QB, PSU (+2,500 )
• Favorite future: Colorado Under 3.5 wins (-115 )

Don't sleep on the Texas Longhorns: Quinn Ewers is really good, Steve Sarkisian's roster is even better than last year, and the Big 12 is very much ripe for the picking. The pass catchers are great and while Bijan Robinson is gone, Texas will look to replace him with a backfield duo of sophomore Jonathan Brooks and five-star recruit CJ Baxter — behind an offensive line that returns all five starters — and the defense also welcomes six starters back.

I'm getting 25/1 odds on the favorite to win a Power Five conference with a good shot at being in the CFP? Yes, please.

I'd love to sprinkle on Marvin Harrison Jr. for the Heisman, but non-QBs basically never win. I'm also passing on Caleb Williams, because repeat winners are even rarer, and while Ewers fits my Texas narrative... let's have some fun and go with Penn State QB Drew Allar.

A five-star recruit in 2022, Allar is a legit 2025 NFL Draft prospect and a massive upgrade over the departed Sean Clifford. Yes, 2024 might be a more realistic season for this bet, but the Nittany Lions are a true contender and he will be the engine. He also gets to face the vaunted Michigan defense at home — a good showing there, along with leading PSU to a Big Ten title (or more)... I'm just saying.

Finally, my favorite futures play is the Colorado Buffaloes Under 3.5 wins. This was one of the worst rosters in the nation last year and has nine total wins over the last three seasons... and Deion Sanders' arrival, along with a previously unheard-of level of roster turnover that yeets any semblance of chemistry out the window, is going to magically win four games?

Not a chance. Other than hosting an equally bad Stanford, home games vs. improved Nebraska and CSU programs are the most winnable games on the Buffs' slate this year, with early beatdowns expected from TCU, Oregon and USC to set the tone of the year. The Under 3.5 is as steep as -150 at some books, but there are still some -115 to -120 prices available... which I'm down with.

Doug Farmer, College football contributor (@D_Farmer)

• National champion: Michigan Wolverines (+900 )
• Heisman Trophy: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (+1,800 )
• Favorite future: Air Force to win Mountain West (+500 )

Sometimes the best thing that can happen to a program is a bad ending to a season — and the Michigan Wolverines have suffered two straight bad endings. If getting blown out by Georgia two years ago was not enough of an offseason motivation, considering how dominant the Bulldogs were known to be, perhaps getting walloped by TCU will be.

Yes, walloped; that CFP semifinal may have ended 51-45, but the Wolverines had the ball with a chance to tie for a total of... four plays after the first quarter. With a veteran team and excellent offensive and defensive lines, winning the National Championship should be within reach for Michigan. Only one other genuine contender — of which there are just seven or eight — can claim a proven quarterback, and LSU’s schedule is too daunting to steep this confidence into Daniels.

Unfortunately, the Washington Huskies are not genuine contenders, but the Pac-12’s swan song could feature the Huskies, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr., in primetime twice to open November — plus heading to USC and facing Utah will buoy Penix’s Heisman campaign.

Air Force will not be given that national spotlight, but have faith in the Falcons, as the top of the Mountain West will take a step back offensively this year. Fresno State is now without QB Jake Haener, his top three receivers, AND running back Jordan Mims, San Diego State is attempting to retool its offensive approach, and Boise State’s new offensive coordinator is uncertain of how to use QB Taylen Green’s best assets.

Air Force’s top-tier defense will thus run roughshod through the league, not to mention against Army and Navy.

Chris Hatfield, College football contributor (@_ChrisHatfield)

• National champion: LSU Tigers (+1,400 )
• Heisman Trophy: Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+1,600 )
• Favorite future: Louisville to win the ACC (+1,200 )

I bet LSU in the summer at a number slightly better than this and still feel good about it. However, I did not anticipate the public love the pick has seemingly gotten.

This bet is as much about setting up hedging opportunities as anything. If you want to take a bet on Georgia to repeat, I certainly couldn't argue with you too much, but I'm not sure I can swallow such a low number. LSU has a coach who knows how to build it: Brian Kelly has been there before and although he hasn't fared well, you must think he's learned something — and he's been able to tap into a better talent pool.

LSU is one of 11 Power Five schools to return its head coach, OC, DC, and starting QB from the season prior. That continuity should help the Tigers, along with having the best defensive player in the entire country in LB Harold Perkins. With an elite WR corps as well, LSU is dynamic on offense and has multiple future NFL talents on the other side — they'll be a handful for anyone in the country.

Klubnik winning the Heisman was another number I bet in the summer — and another one that dived, but I was less surprised about this one.

Looking at what Garrett Riley did at TCU, imagine what he can do with the Clemson Tigers — a place with more resources — and what he can do with a significantly more talented QB. Klubnik got his feet wet last season when Clemson finally decided to move on from DJ Uiagalelei... and he performed well.

Now, I'm expecting Klubnik to explode under Riley. The question for me is if (or when) the Tigers' young WRs can come along fast enough — if they do, this number will move swiftly with a soft opening schedule for Clemson where Klubnik can put up massive numbers.

If you look around the country, you might need help finding a Power Five team with a more manageable schedule than the Louisville Cardinals; they dodge Clemson and Florida State — the only ACC team that can say that. Louisville also sees prodigal son (and former player) Jeff Brohm return home after a successful tenure at Purdue, which is an upgrade after Scott Satterfield unexpectedly darted for Cincinnati.

Brohm then grabbed veteran QB Jack Plummer, who previously played in his system, from Cal in the transfer portal, while also bringing in dynamic WR Jamari Thrash from Georgia State — who has already garnered some preseason conference accolades. This is one of the more talented teams Brohm has had at his disposal, especially on defense: We know he can scheme and lead a team to a conference championship... just like he did with Purdue last season.

JD Yonke, College football contributor (@YonkersCFB)

• National champion: Georgia Bulldogs (+230 )
• Heisman Trophy: Jordan Travis, QB, FSU (+1,600 )
• Favorite future: Northern Illinois O5.5 wins (-152 )

At this point, I'd feel foolish for picking any team to win the National Championship other than the Georgia Bulldogs. The defense will be elite again and I trust the offense will score its fair share of points against a very forgiving schedule.

Plus, I have red flags with nearly all the other contenders — Alabama needs a QB and the new coordinators leave a bit to be desired; Ohio State is retooling at QB and the O-line, plus the defense continues to underachieve, Michigan is dealing with a Jim Harbaugh suspension and hasn't proven it can win the big games, LSU was not at that level a year ago, USC's defense was an embarrassment, and Clemson has taken a step back.

My Heisman pick will be Florida State's Jordan Travis. The Seminoles are loaded on both sides of the ball, and Travis should put forth a dazzling display this season as an experienced dual-threat running the show. They'll make waves in the ACC this season — and possibly beyond with Travis at the forefront.

My favorite regular season win total bet is the Northern Illinois Huskies to win 6+ games. The Huskies had a terrible run of injury luck last year but should return to 2021's MAC Championship level of performance with a healthy roster.

They have a seventh-year senior at QB and return their best offensive weapon in Trayvon Rudolph — both of whom missed last season — plus NIU returns key pieces from a terrific offensive line and the defense should be vastly improved after losing three of its top cornerbacks for the season early last year.

Rob Paul, College football contributor (@Rob__Paul)

• National champion: Alabama Crimson Tide (+650 )
• Heisman Trophy: Jordan Travis, QB, FSU (+1,600 )
• Favorite future: Austin Reed most regular season passing yards (+140 )

An SEC team has won the National Championship in 13 of the last 17 seasons, so the smart money says it has to be Georgia, Alabama, or LSU.

Folks are starting to count out Nick Saban, and when that happens, he tends to make them look silly. Even with a new QB, OC, and DC, the Alabama Crimson Tide have the infrastructure and talent to bring home Saban’s eighth title.

When it comes to the Heisman, there are two rules: It’s almost always a quarterback — only three non-QBs have won since 2006 — and nobody repeats (except for Archie Griffin, and he really shouldn’t have). That counts defending champion Caleb Williams out, even though he’s the most obvious choice, and when leaning towards one of the many talented QBs to trust, it’s always important to look at their surrounding talent.

Drake Maye will be a Top-5 pick in the NFL Draft, but he’s in a new offense with new pass catchers. Jordan Travis, on the other hand, returns the same play-caller, three starters on the offensive line, a top RB, his leading WR, and the Seminoles added future NFL pass catchers Keon Coleman and Jaheim Bell. It also helps Travis’ cause that he is a household name and can juice his numbers with his ability as a runner.

Austin Reed is well on his way to being the fourth Western Kentucky QB drafted since 2016. After leading the country with 4,746 passing yards in his first season in the FBS (after moving up from D-II West Florida) last year, Reed could approach 5,000 yards this season. It’s Hilltopper tradition to throw for a jaw-dropping amount of yards… they’ve had a QB lead the nation four times since 2014.

Ed Scimia, College football contributor (@erscimia)

• National champion: Georgia Bulldogs (+230 )
• Heisman Trophy: Caleb Williams, QB, USC (+550 )
• Favorite future: Syracuse Under 6.5 wins (-150 )

Picking the chalk may be boring, but there’s a lot of reason to get behind the Bulldogs heading into the 2023 season. At this point, it seems foolish to bet against an SEC school getting the crown, and Georgia has more talent than any of its competitors down south — yes, even Alabama. Even if they can’t replace Stetson Bennett, the Bulldogs will have a relatively light schedule that will allow them to work things out before the SEC Championship, which will realistically be their first real challenge. 

I’m sticking with the chalk again with my Heisman pick: Caleb Williams had an incredible sophomore season for the USC Trojans, throwing for 42 touchdowns and 4,537 yards as USC went 11-3. Williams should once again be able to dominate his overmatched Pac-12 competition as Lincoln Riley & Co. prepare to leave the conference, while Williams prepares to reinforce his spot as the favorite to go No. 1 on NFL Draft odds boards.

Finally, I’ll place a bet on my alma mater for my favorite futures pick. Unfortunately, while I may be a proud Syracuse grad, I can’t see the Orange repeating their Bowl Game appearance from last year.

Syracuse has won at least seven games in just two of the seven seasons under Dino Babers. Last year, Syracuse won its first six — with a little luck along the way — before losing six of seven to end the year.

Without Sean Tucker in the backfield, the Orange should struggle even more on offense in 2023 and fall short of the 6.5-win total.

Jason Ence, College football contributor (@jasonuk17)

• National champion: Georgia Bulldogs (+230 )
• Heisman Trophy: Caleb Williams, QB, USC (+550 )
• Favorite future: Texas Under 9.5 wins (+120 )

Until someone shows they can derail the Georgia train, I’m not jumping off it. Yes, I get that it lost 25 players to the NFL over the past two years, and I understand nobody’s won three straight championships in nearly a century.

But Kirby Smart has built a juggernaut, recruiting exceptionally well year after year. Plus, the schedule allows plenty of time to let a new QB settle in. I’m not betting against him.

It’s hard to go against Caleb Williams for the Heisman: He’s got a leg up being the defending winner and he’s also got a full year in Lincoln Riley’s system, with four of his top six receivers returning. 

As for my favorite futures play, it’s all about the Longhorns. You're expecting two more wins than last season? Yeah, right.

They’ve got games at Alabama, at Baylor, and at TCU — which comes a week after they host Kansas State. They’ve also got Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown.

Oh, and we haven’t mentioned Texas having their annual slip-up. See: Texas Tech last year, and Kansas the year before that. Replacing Bijan Robinson’s 1,900 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns will be extremely difficult.

I don’t see Texas winning two more games without Robinson than they did with him, especially with the Ewers/Arch Manning soap opera in play.

Jeremy Jones, College football contributor (@juice_almighty)

• National champion: Texas Longhorns (+2,500 )
• Heisman Trophy: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas (+1,200 )
• Favorite future: Kentucky Over 7 wins (-125 )

It has been a loooong time since the Texas Longhorns have been a real title contender, but this team has the horses to be just that.

QB Quinn Ewers will have plenty of weapons to find down the field and the final season of Texas' Big 12 tenure will be a successful one, as it should find a relatively easy road to the CFP (similar to TCU last year) — however, unlike the Horned Frogs, the Longhorns have the physicality to compete with the SEC.

As I like Texas to win the title, it is a no-brainer for me to take Ewers to win the Heisman. I actually love his pro prospects as well, and I expect him to vastly improve his draft stock this season. He has the return of top wideout, Xavier Worthy, who he should find all season long, while the 'Horns also added a new target in transfer Adonai Mitchell — who after winning back-to-back titles in Georgia, finds himself with a new title contender.

Speaking of the SEC, the Kentucky Wildcats have a very tough conference schedule this year, but they are going to be a better team than they were in the last two seasons, where they went 9-3 and 7-5, respectively. The return of Liam Coen as Offensive Coordinator, and the transfer of Devin Leary at QB — mixed with superstar wideouts Barion Brown and Dante Key — will create a top-notch offense.

KY should almost be guaranteed four wins to start the season with Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Plus home games against Florida and Missouri should also be victories, leaving the Wildcats needing two wins between toss-up games with Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Louisville — assuming they are unable to pull off a big upset during the season.

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