Louisville will be without the services of its star once again as it welcomes Virginia to town.
Mikel Brown went down with a mysterious back injury, and the Cards have struggled, going 3-3 since then. That struggle was on display over the week as they trailed lowly Boston College at halftime before rallying for a double-digit win.
Now, a stern test looms as the Cavaliers, riding a three-game winning streak under new head coach Ryan Odom, come to town.
I break it all down in my Louisville vs. Virginia predictions & college basketball picks for Tuesday, January 13.
Virginia vs Louisville prediction
Virginia vs Louisville best bet: First half Under 73.5 (-115)
Narratives turn by the week in college basketball, but for the moment, the Louisville Cardinals have hit a rough patch.
A rash of injuries, unclear messaging on player availability, and losses in two of the Cards’ last three games have a preseason final four contender sitting closer to the bottom of the Top 25 than the top.
That’s why this quad-one home matchup with the Virginia Cavaliers feels about as close to a January must-win as it gets.
That urgency should show up immediately, which is why I’m targeting the first-half under 73.5. I make the opening 20 minutes closer to 72. The first half should capture the level of urgency from Louisville, which has seen its energy levels significantly impact its defense all season.
Even though both offenses are built around drive-and-kick and rim-and-three spacing, the defensive matchups point to tougher, more deliberate possessions.
Louisville excels at protecting the paint, while Virginia’s frontcourt is built to erase easy rim looks on the other end.
Virginia’s transition profile creates a perfect tug-of-war with Louisville’s identity. The Cavaliers hold teams to a 37th-percentile transition frequency, while Louisville ranks 96th percentile in how often it gets into transition. That suggests the Cards won’t be able to live off easy runouts as they prefer.
When Louisville can’t run, it’s forced into more half-court ball-screen creation, which has been far less consistent without a lottery pick like Mikel Brown on the floor. I expect stretches of ugly basketball early.
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Virginia vs Louisville same-game parlay
Since we expect a lower-scoring game, we expect a decent amount of misses. That’s why a rebounds-focused angle makes sense here.
Both Sananda Fru and Thijs De Ridder are two of the better rebounders on the team, and Fru, in particular, is the real consistent engine for second-chance points.
Both teams do an elite job on the glass so I suspect each will have its share of success there. We took both of these players over their rebound props for our same-game parlay.
Virginia vs Louisville SGP
- First half Under 73.5
- Sananda Fru Over 7.5 rebounds
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
Our beyond the arc SGP: Cardinals get it done
I added Louisville moneyline in my longshot and like the Cards’ chances.
At home in a quad-one game, their defensive urgency should show up, which I expect to tilt things. Virginia limits transition chances well, but when teams do run, they still allow over a point per possession in transition, and Louisville is one of the most transition-hungry teams in the country.
Even with Mikel Brown out and more reliance on ball-screen creation, a few extra runouts plus a solid defensive rebounding night should be enough to get Louisville home.
Virginia vs Louisville SGP
- First half Under 73.5
- Sananda Fru Over 7.5
- Thijs De Ridder Over 5.5 rebounds
- Louisville moneyline
Virginia vs Louisville odds
- Spread: Virginia +3.5 (-110) | Louisville -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Virginia +150 | Louisville -180
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-110) | Under 154.5 (-110)
Virginia vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+2.60 Units / 6% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Louisville.
How to watch Virginia vs Louisville
| Location | KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY |
| Date | Tuesday, January 13, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Virginia vs Louisville key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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