Utah vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Finding Value on the Total Between Struggling Teams

Neither Utah nor USC is in a great position at the moment. Both teams are flailing and the Utes are in serious danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament. While picking a side may prove too daunting, there is value in the total tonight.

Feb 15, 2024 • 13:10 ET • 4 min read
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The “Get Even or Get Even Deeper” game on the college basketball odds board sees the Utah Utes visiting the USC Trojans for an 11 p.m. ET tipoff tonight.

Both programs need a win as they sink to the bottom of the Pac-12 standings, but it’s the Utes who are most desperate for a turnaround.

They’re running the risk of falling out of contention for a spot in the NCAA Tournament after just missing out on an overtime win against Arizona and then faceplanting as 13-point home favorites in a loss to Arizona State on the weekend.

While the road has been unkind to Craig Smith’s team, Southern Cal seems as good a place as any to get right. The Trojans are mired in a terrible funk, with only one win in their last nine outings. 

I size up the spread and Over/Under for this Pac-12 contest and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Utah at USC on February 15.

Utah vs USC best odds

Utah vs USC picks and predictions

Tonight’s total reflects the recent results for these two teams but is on the short side when measured against their usual Over/Under markets. That’s especially true when you look at the current form of these defenses.

The Utah Utes have hemorrhaged points over the past month with those defensive efforts coming up well short on the road. The Runnin’ Utes have been run out of opposing gyms, allowing host teams to score more than 80 points on 49% shooting.

While the USC Trojans offense has been more “miss” than “hit” in recent weeks, that output reflects a road-heavy schedule for Andy Enfield’s program. The Trojans are coming off back-to-back road games and have played inside the Galen Center only three times in the last eight games going back to January 13. 

Defensively, USC ranks in the bottom third of the conference and even home court hasn’t helped improve those numbers during Pac-12 play. The Trojans' most glaring weakness has been defending the perimeter, watching foes fire at a 37% success rate from 3-point range whille ranking 335th in points allowed from distance. 

Utah’s playbook produces plenty of long-range looks, with the Utes averaging just short of 27 points per game off 3-point makes (37th highest). Coach Smith runs an up-tempo attack that leads to a higher volume of field goal attempts and the bulk of those shots are from beyond the arc.

Game models for this Pac-12 tilt call for between 152 and 153 points from the Utes and Trojans, which points to a solid Over play when measured against the Over/Under number of 147.5.

My best bet: Over 147.5 (-110 at bet365)

Utah vs USC same-game parlay

Over 147.5 points

Gabe Madsen Over 12.5 points

Gabe Madsen Over 2.5 made threes

Game projections call for as many as 153 points from these conference foes. Utah can fill it up from outside and the Trojans have a deep and talented roster of promising players.

Gabe Madsen should flourish against a soft USC perimeter defense. He’s projected for 14 points and has big games against Arizona and Colorado before an off-night versus ASU.

Madsen fires up 3-pointers in bulk and will get plenty of chances against South Cal’s defense. Player models call for 3.3 triples from him tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Utah vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers initially installed Southern Cal as a 1-point home underdog but early market opinion on the Trojans nudged this spread over the fence, with USC currently laying -1.5 at home tonight. Covers Consensus shows 60% of picks on South Cal.

Utah suffered a nasty hangover following the triple-overtime thriller against Arizona and laid an egg against Arizona State at home on Saturday. The Runnin’ Utes now head to Los Angeles, lugging with them 1-5 SU and ATS mark in true road games.

Defense is the biggest sore spot for Utah, which has allowed 77 points or more in five of its last six games overall and watches host teams fire up an average of 80.4 points in road games.

Southern Cal presents a less dangerous threat on the offensive end, with USC ranked among the worst attacks in the conference. The Trojans have topped 70 points only once in regulation over their last nine games, leading to a 3-6 ATS record in that span.

Tonight’s total opened at 148.5 points and is down to 147.5 at some sportsbooks. Covers Consensus is reporting 59% of early total picks on the Over.

The Utes’ defensive fallout has led to a 4-2 O/U count in the past six games, bumping the team’s overall total results to 12-11 O/U on the season including a 4-2 O/U clip on the road.

The Trojans are also 4-2 O/U in their previous six outings. Southern Cal owns a 16-8 O/U record on the year, with a 7-4 O/U count as the home team.

Utah vs USC betting trend to know

Southern Cal is one of the better Over bets in the Pac-12 at 16-8 O/U on the season, including 7-4 O/U at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah vs. USC.

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Utah vs USC game info

Location: Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA
Date: Thursday, February 15, 2024
Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET

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