The Fairleigh Dickinson Knights face off against the Texas Southern Tigers in the First Four as a part of our March Madness picks on Wednesday night. Both sides are fortunate to be even fighting for a spot in the Field of 64, with the Tigers ranking 292nd in the country in the latest NET rankings and the Knights entering even lower at 301st.
March Madness odds have booked the Tigers as slim 2-point road favorites with the Over/Under set at 146.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern on March 15.
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson best odds
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson picks and predictions
The Texas Southern Tigers struggled for much of the season but really ramped up their defense in the SWAC Tournament where they allowed just 60.3 points per game on just 36.4% shooting.
They should be able to contain the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, who are somewhat decent on offense but are also one of the worst teams in the country on the defensive end of the floor.
The Knights attack the rim at a high frequency but are just 316th in the country in finishing at the rim per ShotQualityBets, which isn't surprising when you consider that they have the size of a high school team.
They are led by a backcourt featuring 5-foot-8 Demetre Roberts and 5-foot-9 Grant Singleton. Center Ansley Almonor is their biggest player at just 6-foot-6, while reserve Jo'El Emanuel is their only rotation player taller than 6-foot-4.
Texas Southern has the length to shut them down thanks to a pair of 6-foot-9 starters (John Walker and Joirdon Karl Nicholas) and two other starters checking in at 6-foot-5.
The Tigers have also been here before, having advanced to the Round of 64 in six of the last eight NCAA Tournaments. Although the Knights won a First Four contest back in 2019, nobody from that lineup is still around.
Texas Southern pulled off First Four victories in each of the last two seasons under Johnny Jones, and players like Walker, Nicholas, and P.J. Henry were significant contributors on those squads.
With the Tigers having an advantage in size and experience on the national stage, back them on the moneyline.
My best bet: Texas Southern moneyline (-130 at bet365)
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Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson spread analysis
Texas Southern went just 14-20 this season while going 7-11 in conference play. However, the Tigers caught fire in the SWAC Tournament, winning three in a row and defeating Grambling State in the finals to book a trip to the First Four.
Fairleigh Dickinson had far more success over the course of the entire season, going 19-15 overall and 10-6 in conference play. However, the Knights came up just short in the Northeast Conference Tournament Finals and only received an NCAA tourney berth because champion Merrimack is ineligible.
There isn't much talent separating the NEC from the SWAC, with the two leagues ranked last and second-last respectively among all Division 1 conferences in RPI.
The Tigers rank just 343rd in the country in offensive efficiency (92.2 points per 100 possessions) but the Knights are just 298th on defense (106.2). However, the Knights are 62nd in offensive efficiency (106.7 points per 100 possessions) while the Tigers are 121st in defensive efficiency (98.9).
Despite struggling to shoot the ball, the Tigers have four players averaging double-digits in points. Davon Barnes leads the team with 13.6 ppg and averaged 17.3 ppg during the SWAC Tournament.
Fairleigh Dickinson also has four players scoring in double digits, led by Roberts (16.7 ppg, 4.3 assists per game) and Singleton (14.3 ppg, 3.3 apg).
If the Knights want to pull off the upset, they'll need to rely on their full-court pressure to create turnovers. The Tigers rank outside the Top 300 in turnover rate while the Knights are 33rd in opponent turnover rate.
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson Over/Under analysis
Both sides play at an above-average pace but neither really stands out with their ability to speed up the tempo or jump into transition.
The Tigers defend very well against catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, midrange shots, and post-up situations — ranking in the Top 40 against those plays per ShotQualityBets.
Texas Southern is 277th in the country in field goal percentage (43%) and is near the bottom of the country with an ugly 28.2% mark from long range.
Despite their poor defense, the Knights have also played in lower-scoring games lately. They combined for just 133 points against Merrimack in the NEC Finals and beat St. Francis 70-50 in the semis.
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson betting trend to know
The Tigers are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games while the Knights are 2-10 ATS in their previous 12 contests at neutral sites. Find more college basketball betting trends for Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh.
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson game info
| Region: | First Four |
| Location: | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 15, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TruTV |
Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson key injuries
