Gonzaga vs UCLA Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Does Defense Give Bruins an Edge?

This Sweet 16 matchup between Gonzaga and UCLA will be a battle of styles, with Gonzaga leading the nation in offensive efficiency and UCLA second in defense. Who'll come out top? Read our March Madness picks below to find out.

Mar 23, 2023 • 15:43 ET • 4 min read

March Madness odds ramble on as the No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins (31-5) meet the No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (30-5) in the West Region semifinals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Adam Morrison isn’t walking through that door for this Sweet 16 matchup but fans are hoping for yet another legendary game between the two top programs on the West Coast.

Going back to Morrison’s distress in 2005-06 and Jalen Suggs’ halfcourt buzzer-beater in the 2021-22 Final Four, these programs have shared some of the game’s most memorable moments in the NCAA Tournament’s recent history.

What will be in store for this Sweet 16 showdown? Check out my college basketball picks for Gonzaga vs. UCLA below to find out.

Gonzaga vs UCLA best odds

Gonzaga vs UCLA picks and predictions

The Gonzaga Bulldogs were cast by the wayside early this season as not being up to its typical snuff after a relatively rough start to the year. The Zags lost to Texas, Purdue, and Baylor in the non-conference portion of the schedule to put a damper on this year’s prospects early on in the season.

In retrospect, those losses were nothing for the Zags to hand their heads about considering all three schools ended up with a Top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, although the margin of error (19 points against the Longhorns, 18 points against the Boilermakers) left reason for concern. 

Mark Few’s side basically did what it normally does in WCC play — dominate — albeit to a lesser extent. Usually, the Zags blow through their conference opponents with ease, but early warning signs were given merit after an inexplicable loss to Loyola Marymount in mid-January. A loss to Saint Mary’s in early January cast doubt on whether Gonzaga’s supremacy would continue.

The Zags put those concerns to bed by righting the ship after that initial Saint Mary’s loss, winning seven straight games to close the regular season and two more in the conference tournament en route to sweeping the WCC regular season and tournament titles. 

After starting slowly against Grand Canyon in Round 1, the Zags pulled away on a torrid second-half stretch to win 82-70. Similarly, Gonzaga fell behind to TCU in Round 2, trailing 38-33 before turning on the jets in the second half en route to an 84-81 win. Few’s squad has won 11 straight games entering Thursday’s clash with the Bruins. 

The UCLA Bruins were head and shoulders the best team in the Pac-12 this season, dominating the regular season with an 18-2 record. Mick Cronin’s side would lose to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game, although the Bruins were massively shorthanded for that contest.

The Bruins had arguably the most impressive performance of any team in Round 1, dispatching UNC Asheville with gusto in an 86-53 win. They then defeated Northwestern 68-63 in a game that was close in the second half but ultimately was a pretty decisive final few minutes.

The biggest storyline surrounding the Bruins has unfortunately been the fact they've been super shorthanded. Pac-12 DPOY Jaylen Clark is out with an Achilles injury suffered in the regular season finale, while star big man Adem Bona missed Round 1 and wasn't at 100% when he played in Round 2. Fifth-year wing David Singleton also went down in agony with an ankle injury against Northwestern but is expected to play.

I think Clark's game is vastly underrated by those not staying up to watch West Coast hoops and his defensive abilities would be critical in this matchup against a Zaga team that leads the nation in offensive efficiency and loves to push the pace.

If UCLA is fully healthy, it’d be my pick to win the National Championship. Even without Clark, both Bona and Singleton are expected to give things a go on Thursday and I think that has to make the Bruins the favorite. They have plenty of experience with seniors Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell providing a steady presence leading the way and enough talent with Amari Bailey and Bona being arguably the top freshman duo in the country. 

They get it done on both ends of the court, ranking 21st in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency and while Gonzaga may be elite offensively, the defense is a notable issue at 75th in efficiency. Allowing both Grand Canyon and TCU to score repeatedly leads me to believe that UCLA will keep pace on offense while holding a massive advantage on the defensive end. 

While UCLA is a profitable 8-3 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games, the Zags have struggled in March. Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games and I’ll back that trend to continue in the Sweet 16. 

My best bet: UCLA -2 (-110 at bet365)

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Gonzaga vs UCLA spread analysis

The spread opened at -1.5 before quickly moving in UCLA’s favor. Currently, the Bruins reside at -2 in some locations and -2.5 in others. 

Gonzaga has had a rough go of things this season in terms of meeting expectations, going 13-20-1 ATS. While a lot of that is due to the fact that simply too much is expected out of the Zags on a game-to-game basis, it puts them in stark contrast to a dominant UCLA team that is 21-13-2 ATS. 

Gonzaga has faced five teams this year that received a Top 3 seed: Texas, Purdue, Xavier, Baylor, and Alabama. The Zags’ record in those games was 2-3 as they beat Xavier and Alabama by a combined 14 points and lost to Texas, Purdue, and Baylor by a combined 38 points. With a -24 margin across a five-game sample size, I’m going to operate under the impression that Gonzaga struggles a bit against elite teams.

The Zags were able to get their offense going against both Alabama (100-90 final score) and Xavier (88-84). I’m not sure that is guaranteed to be the case against UCLA, which allows just 60.1 points per game. The Bruins rank just 244th in adjusted tempo per KenPom, a strong contrast to both Alabama (fifth in adjusted tempo) and Xavier (33rd). 

If UCLA is able to make this a half-court game for the most part, I like its chances of advancing to the Elite Eight. 

Gonzaga vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

The total is currently set at 145.5 across the board. UCLA has been neutral with an 18-18 O/U record this season but Gonzaga has played to the Over, going 20-14 O/U. The Zags have been going Over totals at a rapid rate lately, going 9-3 O/U in their last 12 games. 

This game will be a clash of styles as Gonzaga likes to push the tempo offensively while UCLA is more comfortable playing at a measured pace. That being said, the Bruins have enough athleticism to run with the Zags for stretches and there are likely to be moments where both teams are trading baskets at a high pace before the Bruins settle things back down. 

I don’t have a strong lean on either side, but I slightly prefer the Over. Gonzaga’s offense is good enough to find points against any defense, so predicting UCLA to shut things down completely would likely be unwise.

Bailey has had an offensive breakout for the Bruins in the postseason and now gives the Bruins three elite offensive weapons (along with Jaquez and Capbell) to attack a beatable Gonzaga defense. 

Gonzaga vs UCLA betting trend to know

Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS in its last seven NCAA Tournament games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs UCLA.

Gonzaga vs UCLA game info

Region: West
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Thursday, March 23, 2023
Tip-off: 9:45 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

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