March Madness Final Four Parlay Picks: Aztec Resistance Proves Strong

The NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four, and it’s definitely one of the more unlikely groups of teams in the history of this great tournament.

I attended Florida Atlantic University, and loved my time in Boca Raton. But I never thought in a million years, even with our team having a historic season, that I’d ever see FAU and Final Four in the same sentence. But “The Beach Boys” are one of four teams playing for a national title this weekend.

They’re joined by two other first-time Final Four squads: the Miami Hurricanes and San Diego State Aztecs.

And, of course, there are the UConn Huskies. Been there, done that. They have four titles in school history, so they’re the definite blue blood of the group. More importantly, this team might be playing better than anyone right now. 

Let’s see how this wild weekend shakes down in H-Town, with our Final Four parlay picks.

Final four parlay picks

• FAU-SDSU 1H Under 60.5 (+100) + Miami 1H +2.5 (-105) = +281
• UConn-Miami Over 149.5 (-110) + SDSU -130 ML = +237

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Parlay Pick 1

PARLAY: FAU-San Diego State First Half Under 60.5 (+100) + Miami First Half +2.5 (-105) = +281 at BetMGM

FAU-San Diego State First Half Under 60.5

I want FAU to win so very badly, but I never let professional work and my heart interfere with each other. The next best thing is playing a total, and I like this number for the first 20 minutes.

For the first half, the total is set at 60.5 (-110), and FAU is going to be looking to get out and run. San Diego State, of course, has a suffocating defense, and a methodical, snail-pace on offense. It will be interesting to see which one wins out.

FAU might have been a bit green entering this NCAA Tournament, but it has seen physical teams from Memphis, Tennessee, and Kansas State in this journey. It has adapted well, and forced those teams to at least play a slight tick above what they’re comfortable playing. Most of its scoring has come in the second half, however.

FAU and K-State combined for 80 points in the Elite Eight game in NYC, while things were a little more conservative in the Tennessee game, with just 49 combined points. The books’ thinking is that we’ll meet somewhere in the middle. 

FAU is averaging just 31.8 points per game in the first half in four NCAA Tournament games, while San Diego State is allowing just 27.5 PPG in the first half in four NCAA Tournament games. I think we’ll see a similar 27-22 score like FAU saw in the first half against Tennessee before it finds its sea legs.

San Diego State has averaged just 31.8 PPG in the first half in four games in the NCAA Tournament, too, and a lot of that damage came in a 39-point ‘outburst’ — as far as Aztecs hoops is concerned — against an overmatched Furman team in the second round.

Look for both teams to have difficulty adjusting to the massive open space at NRG Stadium in Houston, too. The lights will be super bright, and it will take time for these teams to adjust. There won’t be a lot of successful perimeter shooting, but a lot of work in the paint instead.

Miami First Half +2.5

As far as the second end of the ticket, UConn is playing tremendous basketball. It has won and covered all four games so far in the NCAA Tournament, going for 82 or more points in three of those games.

However, the Huskies were trailing against Iona in the opening round, while leading Saint Mary’s by just one in a low-scoring first half in the second game. They were covering the first-half line in routs of Arkansas and Gonzaga, but this Miami team will give them a run.

Miami has been covering the first-half line in two of the past three games, leading Houston and Indiana outright as an underdog.

As long as the Hurricanes are able to contain Adama Sanogo, at least somewhat, not only does Miami have a chance to cover the first-half line, but the Canes could blow their way into the National Title game on Monday night.

Parlay Pick 2

PARLAY: UConn-Miami Over 149.5 (-110) + San Diego State -130 ML = +237 at BetMGM

UConn-Miami Over 149.5

Both UConn and Miami haven’t had any problems putting up points in this NCAA Tournament.

The Hurricanes were limited to just 63 points in the opening round against Drake, but Miami has exploded for 85 or more points in three straight games, cashing the Over in each outing.

In fact, the No. 1-seed Houston hadn’t allowed 80 points all season, but the Hurricanes dropped 89 on them in the Sweet Sixteen game. Miami picked up right where it left off, dropping 88 on Texas, spoiling a potential Lone Star State Final Four for both the Cougars and Longhorns.

The Huskies have also been razor-sharp on offense, going for 82 or more points, while cashing the Over in two of four games so far. The defense really clamped down on Saint Mary’s, Arkansas, and Gonzaga, limiting the foes to 65 or fewer points. UConn’s D isn’t going to lock down Miami, though, as the Hurricanes are playing with too much confidence. I can see both of these teams getting into the 80s in a wild affair.

San Diego State ML

As far as the money line play for the first game, again, I don’t want to see it happen this way, but I think the defense of San Diego State is going to be too much for the young FAU Owls to handle. 

The Aztecs limit the opposition to 64.4 PPG, and they’re especially stout against the 3-pointer, holding teams to just 29.8% from behind the arc, or No. 15 in the nation.

The Owls are a bit smallish, and like to use the trey as a big part of their game. If that pipeline is closed, or at least severely limited, it doesn’t really have the trees to bang down low with San Diego State. I think it is going to be close, but the Aztecs get it done, and advance to the title game.

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