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Creighton vs Baylor Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Bluejays Will Force Bears into Bad Shots

Creighton's offense may need some work, but there's no question that the Bluejays' defense can hang with the best. Find out why their stop-unit should play a big factor on Sunday by reading our Creighton vs. Baylor betting picks.

Last Updated: Mar 19, 2023 9:27 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

This Round of 32 matchups in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament will see the No. 6 Creighton Bluejays face off with the No. 3 Baylor Bears as a part of our latest March Madness picks.

Creighton controlled most of its first-round matchup with NC State, ultimately prevailing 72-63 over the Wolfpack. Meanwhile, Baylor had few issues in its first-round victory over UC Santa Barbara, winning 74-56. The Bears were trailing at halftime but completely dominated the second half.

March Madness odds currently have the Bluejays penned as slight betting dogs for this contest. Find out where the handicapping edge lies for this one in our college basketball picks and predictions for Creighton vs. Baylor on March 19.

Creighton vs Baylor best odds

Creighton vs Baylor picks and predictions

While Creighton's offense really struggled on Friday against NC State, the Bluejays remained defensively sound. They only committed 14 personal fouls, recorded six blocks, and held the Wolfpack to just 37.5% shooting from the field.

On the season, Creighton only averaged 13.2 personal fouls per game, which ranked second in the nation. The Bluejays are set to now face a Baylor team that heavily relies on either the 3-point shot or free throws to keep its offense humming.

20.6% of the Bears' points came from free throws, and on Friday, 32.4% of their points came from threes. This plays right into the hands of the Bluejays, as they are excellent at forcing their opponents to shoot mid-range jumpers. 

With Creighton’s ability to protect the rim and prevent 3-pointers and free throws, Baylor is going to have to shoot lights out from the midrange. That is a recipe for disaster in today’s style of basketball.

Offensively, the Bluejays should have better success this time around as they go against a Bears team that allows opponents to shoot 37.7% from downtown. Creighton will not allow Baylor to get what it wants offensively and should be able to win and advance.

My best bet: Creighton moneyline (+101 at Pinnacle)

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Creighton vs Baylor spread analysis

Creighton comes in at 13th overall in KenPom rankings, while Baylor is right behind the Bluejays at 14th.

However, Creighton is much better defensively, ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 98th for Baylor. In adjusted offensive efficiency, Baylor is second and Creighton comes in at 29th.

Baylor lost four of its final six games coming into the NCAA Tournament and limped into their 3-seed. The Bears used their talent to overcome UC Santa Barbara, but they will not have that same advantage over Creighton.

The Bluejays are 11-3 against the spread in their last 14 neutral site games, while the Bears are 3-3 ATS in neutral site games this season and 7-7 ATS in their non-conference games. That includes their cover over the Gauchos on Friday.

Baylor typically plays the perfect style of play for tournament success, but the Bears are about to run into a terrible matchup that will end their season. 

Creighton vs Baylor Over/Under analysis

The large total for this game may be a bit surprising given how Creighton defends and forces a lot of 2-point jumpers. However, the offensive efficiency in this game will create an opportunity for a high-scoring game. Neither team turns the ball over very much nor do they force a ton of turnovers from their opponent.

The trends would tell you to lean towards the Under, as it is 8-3 in the Bluejays' last 11 NCAA Tournament games and 9-3-1 in their last 13 games following an ATS win. The Under is also 7-2-1 in the Bears' last 10 games following a straight up win and 7-2 in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600.

Since I like Creighton and its defense to dictate this contest, I would slightly lean toward the Under. 

Creighton vs Baylor betting trend to know

The Bluejays are 4-1 ATS over their last five games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Baylor.

Creighton vs Baylor game info

Region: South
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Sunday, March 19, 2023
Tip-off: 7:10 p.m. ET

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