March Madness Moneyline Picks for Sunday, March 22

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 21, 2026 , 01:51 PM ET • 4 min read

Our March Madness moneyline picks for all Round 2 games on March 22, with Kentucky highlighting Phil Naessens' favorite upset for Sunday's slate.

Kentucky Wildcats forward Brandon Garrison (10) reacts after dunking.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Kentucky Wildcats forward Brandon Garrison (10) reacts after dunking.

Betting favorites went a perfect 16-0 on Friday, and those winners will square off on Sunday in the second round of March Madness action.

These eight matchups could bring even more chalky results, and my college basketball predictions reflect that.

Find out more in my March Madness picks for March 22.

March Madness moneyline picks on Sunday, March 22

Matchup Pick
Miami Miami 
vs
Purdue Purdue
Purdue -320
Kentucky Kentucky
vs
Iowa State Iowa State
Kentucky +180
St. John's St. John's
vs
Kansas Kansas
St. John's -160
Tennessee Tennessee
vs
Virginia Virginia
Tennessee -115
Iowa Iowa
vs
Florida Florida
Florida -700
Utah State Utah State
vs
Arizona Arizona
Arizona -750
UCLA UCLA
vs
UConn UConn
UConn -185
Texas Tech Texas Tech
vs
Alabama Alabama
Alabama -110

Lines courtesy of bet365.

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Expert March Madness Round 2 moneyline picks for Sunday

No. 7 Miami vs No. 2 Purdue: Purdue Purdue (-320)

Braden Smith and the Purdue Boilermakers boast the nation’s top offense, highlighted by a 2:2 assist-to-turnover ratio.

The Miami Hurricanes defense isn’t equipped to slow them down, so Purdue should score efficiently and control the game from tip to horn.

No. 7 Kentucky vs No. 2 Iowa State: Kentucky Kentucky (+180)

Joshua Jefferson’s absence is a major blow for the Iowa State Cyclones. He brings scoring, rebounding, and two-way versatility that isn’t easy to replace.

The Kentucky Wildcats already have the offensive firepower to compete, and this matchup now tilts in their favor.

Kentucky will come away with the win.

No. 5 St. John's vs No. 4 Kansas: St. John's St. John's (-160)

Two elite defenses are set to clash, but this matchup comes down to form and who can create offense when it matters most.

The St. John’s Red Storm have won seven straight and are riding a wave of confidence, while the Kansas Jayhawks are just 4-5 in their last nine games.

With Zuby Ejiofor leading the way, St. John’s is poised to advance.

No. 6 Tennessee vs No. 3 Virginia: Tennessee Tennessee (-115)

The Tennessee Volunteers and Virginia Cavaliers are both defensive powerhouses, but the Vols' dominance on the glass looms large. 

Tennessee rebounds 45% of its missed shots, a huge factor in what promises to be a slow-paced affair.


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No. 9 Iowa vs No. 1 Florida: Florida Florida (-700)

The Florida Gators are elite on both ends of the floor. They score efficiently and defend at a high level, and the Iowa Hawkeyes remain vulnerable against top-tier offenses. 

Although Iowa shoots well from the field, Florida’s size and rebounding will limit second chances and allow them to control the game from start to finish.

No. 9 Utah State vs No. 1 Arizona: Arizona Arizona (-750)

The Arizona Wildcats are simply on another level. They rank among the nation’s best on both offense and defense, while the Utah State Aggies struggle to get stops against efficient teams.

Arizona's combination of scoring and physicality will wear down Utah State, allowing the No. 1 seed to prevail.

No. 7 UCLA vs No. 2 UConn: UConn UConn (-185)

The UConn Huskies have the edge with a more experienced, balanced roster.

Despite the UCLA Bruins' efficient shooting, their defense isn’t consistent. If Tyler Bilodeau is limited, it further weakens UCLA’s frontcourt. 

UConn’s depth and physicality are bound to carry them through.

No. 5 Texas Tech vs No. 4 Alabama: Alabama Alabama (-110)

This is a true toss-up, but I'm siding with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

They’re strong on the perimeter and will limit the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ 3-point-reliant attack. With JT Toppin out, Tech also loses a serious presence inside.

Even with the absence of Aden Holloway, Alabama’s defense and balanced scoring should secure the win.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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