No disrespect to the other side of the bracket, but this Final Four matchup between the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines is a banger.
Tabbed as the “Real National Championship” by many, this showdown of No. 1 seeds is a toss-up in every sense of the word.
Well, that won’t cut it for basketball bettors.
Our Michigan vs. Arizona predictions measure the spread and total for this semifinal, and I do my best to find an edge with my early March Madness picks and leans for the Final Four.
Michigan vs Arizona predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Michigan vs Arizona spread pick: Arizona +1.5
Michigan opened as a 1.5-point favorite versus Arizona, and early market movement sees the vig on UM ticking upward, potentially tipping its hand of a move to -2.
The notorious college basketball prognostication sites lean toward the Wolverines, but not by much. Michigan’s margins don’t sway more than two points at most spots.
As we get closer to tipoff on Saturday, we could see his spread swing the other direction with interest on Arizona as an underdog — especially when it comes to moneyline action.
The betting markets have been a touch more bullish on Arizona through the NCAA Tournament. Our Covers Consensus data shows the public backing the Wildcats in the Round of 32, as well as 62% of picks laying the points versus Purdue.
Michigan, on the other hand, wasn’t drawing as much support through the first three rounds before closing with 55% of picks in the win over Tennessee in the Elite Eight.
Personally, my bracket has Arizona going through to the title game and winning it all. Ignoring that bias, however, I do lean toward the Wildcats as slim underdogs, and we’ll have more breakdowns of this matchup later in the week.
Early Michigan vs Arizona total pick: Under 157.5
Arizona and Michigan don’t often run into an opponent that can counter their interior size, but here we are with an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.
The key inside Lucas Oil Stadium might as well be a UFC octagon when these two bruising programs butt heads. Arizona and Michigan are in the Top 10 in points scored in the paint and rank 26th and 23rd, respectively, in PITP allowed.
With nothing easy inside, 3-point shooting — or even just mid-range shooting — will be the X-factor. Neither side leans into perimeter play much, but the Wolverines do get the nod from beyond the arc, while Arizona is respectable from mid-range.
That said, shooting in these cavernous Final Four venues, like Lucas Oil Stadium, can be tricky for even the sharpest shooting side. It may take a half for these teams to get used to the massive depth of field in the football stadium, and that could keep scoring stunted in the opening 20 minutes.
The total hasn't moved much since opening, with most books dealing 157.5 while some sharper shops are as low as 157 O/U.
Early Michigan vs Arizona player prop
Pick: Aday Mara Over 2.5 assists (-130)
Aday Mara’s minutes took a hit versus Tennessee. Foul trouble and UM’s blowout of the Vols limited the 7-footer to just 18 minutes.
While he scored 11 points, he failed to register a single assist for the first time since November 19. Mara is an underrated passer and has shown his playmaking ability with 15 total dimes through the first three games.
Saturday’s Final Four matchup with Arizona will be played at a much quicker tempo than the Tennessee game, and Mara will be a valuable conduit for the Wolverines as an inside-out passer to the perimeter.
The Wildcats will collapse in the key, and he’ll kick out to UM’s shooters. Mara is also a great passer from the high post, stretching the Arizona defense and hitting cutters to the rim.
Projections sit as high as 3.1 assists.
Michigan vs Arizona odds
- Michigan vs. Arizona spread: Michigan -1.5
- Michigan vs. Arizona moneyline: Michigan -120, Arizona +100
- Michigan vs. Arizona Over/Under: 157.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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