Arkansas vs Arizona Prop Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Sweet 16

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst 18+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 25, 2026 , 05:41 PM ET • 4 min read

Farmer's prediction: Sweet Sixteen turns into Acuff vs. Arizona.

Darius Acuff Jr. Arkansas Razorbacks college basketball
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Darius Acuff Jr. gets to the hoop against High Point in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Arkansas Razorbacks are about to play one of the most dangerous games in college basketball.

They are going to try to outrun and out-athlete the Arizona Wildcats. It is not exactly a recipe for success.

My Arkansas vs. Arizona player props trust exactly one Razorback, though there is nothing wrong with leaning into a superstar in the Sweet Sixteen.

Read more in my March Madness picks for Thursday, March 26. 

Arkansas vs Arizona props

Player Pick bet365
Arkansas Darius Acuff Jr. Over 25.5 points +100
Arkansas Darius Acuff Jr. Over 2.5 threes -135
Arizona Brayden Burries Over 18.5 points +105
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Prop #1: Darius Acuff Jr. Over 25.5 points

+100 at bet365

Does Arkansas have any other hope? The Razorbacks are more comparable to 11-seed Texas than they are to 1-seed Arizona.

Arkansas does not shoot many 3-pointers. It is not strong at crashing the offensive glass. It is a team built on pace, transition, and athletes.

Arizona is built similarly — only better.

Freshman point guard Darius Acuff Jr. has cleared this prop in four of his last six games, with all of those successes coming against NCAA Tournament teams.

Prop #2: Darius Acuff Jr. Over 2.5 threes

-135 at bet365

Acuff is the one Razorback who can shoot from deep. Of players who qualified statistically, he ranks No. 23 nationally in 3-point percentage at 44.6% while taking nearly 5.8 per game.

And Acuff has been on a heater in March. In six games this month, he has cleared this prop four times while shooting 51.2% from beyond the arc.

His usage has climbed as the games have mattered the most. Acuff has taken 6.8 threes per game in March, compared to 5.6 in the first 29 games of the season.

That uptick alone justifies this prop, even before factoring in how high-scoring this Sweet Sixteen matchup should be.

Prop #3: Brayden Burries Over 18.5 points

+105 at bet365

One of Arkansas’s most worrying flaws is that opponents make 54.0% of their shots inside the arc. When facing a team that effectively forsakes 3-pointers, that should move beyond a worry to an outright fear.

Arizona freshman Brayden Burries thrives at the rim, and with the Razorbacks’ general lack of rim protection, he should find himself with clean looks at close range more often than not.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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