The March Madness bracket poses a fun one tonight when the No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels play a potential track meet matchup with the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16.
The West Region quarterfinal features two offenses that like to get up and down the floor, which is why March Madness odds have a sky-high total on the board.
The Tide and Tat Heels currently have an Over/Under of 173.5 points which, should it close there or higher, would be the biggest total in NCAA Tournament betting history – topping the number from Alabama’s first two games of this year’s Big Dance (172 and 173).
I break down the spread and Over/Under for this Sweet 16 shootout and give my best March Madness picks and Alabama vs. North Carolina prop picks for March 28.
Alabama vs North Carolina odds
North Carolina
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Alabama vs North Carolina picks and predictions
North Carolina's offense is at its best in the open floor, thriving in transition with point guard R.J. Davis at the wheel.
Davis will welcome the pace of this Sweet 16 clash with Alabama, who run the fastest tempo in the country and also stink at slowing down foes in transition.
The Tar Heels enter Thursday running the 35th-highest rate of transition offense in the country and sit 82nd in points per play from those sets. The Crimson Tide, on the defensive flip, rank 169th in points allowed to transition.
Davis was able to crack Michigan State’s defense, which is notorious for putting the breaks on transition teams, for 20 points in the Round of 32. That followed a 22-point effort in the blowout win over Wagner in the opening round.
In both of those outings, Davis was aggressive from outside the arc, making 7 of 14 shots from 3-point land. His 3-point player prop against Alabama on Thursday is set at 2.5 O/U, with the Over opening at plus-money at many books. That price has since swung to between -115 and -144 vig.
Davis averages 3.1 makes on 7.6 attempts from distance this season, and his ceiling for this Sweet 16 game is very high when you factor in the inflated game total and how Bama goes about its business.
The Crimson Tide take the fourth most triples per game (30.1 3PA) in the country and make an average of 11 an outing. They also give up their fair share from a distance, watching foes fire up more than 23 attempts per outing.
ShotQualityBets has the Crimson Tide ranked 143rd and 195th in points allowed to “catch-and-shoot” and “off-the-dribble” 3-point playsets while UNC’s offense is sitting 24th and 29th in points per play in those perimeter schemes.
That bodes well for Davis, who should see plenty of touches considering the projected pace of this contest. Not only does he face a softer Alabama defense, but with the Tide taking and making triples, there will be an added need to answer those with big shots of his own.
Davis has knocked down three or more 3-pointers in four straight games and 10 of his last 14 contests. Player projections for the Sweet 16 forecast 3.3 triples for UNC’s senior guard.
My best bet: R.J. Davis Over 2.5 threes (-130 at DraftKings)
Alabama vs North Carolina same-game parlay
R.J. Davis Over 2.5 threes
R.J. Davis Over 22.5 points
North Carolina moneyline
Davis will see more looks from long-range than usual and make good on at least three of those triples.
Plenty of threes and UNC’s transition attack going after Alabama means points for Davis, who is forecasted for as many as 26 points.
Game models all like the Tar Heels to advance, but the margins range from 1-3 points. Defense will be the difference for UNC.
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Alabama vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
• Oddsmakers opened North Carolina as low as a 3.5-point favorite and that has since jumped to -4.5, as of Tuesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 69% of early picks are laying the points with UNC.
• Alabama has covered in both NCAA tournament games as favorites but is just 2-6 against the spread as an underdog this season. North Carolina has cruised as point spread chalk in its two tourney games, boasting an average MOV of +22 points.
• This total hit the board as low as 172.5 and has moved up to 173.5 points as of Tuesday morning. Covers Consensus data is reporting a slight 51% lean in picks on the Over.
• Should this total close at 173.5 points or higher, it would be the tallest recorded Over/Under number in NCAA Tournament history. Totals of 166.5 points or higher have produced a 2-4 O/U count since the 1998 national tourney.
Alabama vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Alabama has gone Over the total in 25 of its last 34 games (+15.10 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. North Carolina.
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Alabama vs North Carolina game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 28, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:39 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Alabama vs North Carolina key injuries
