Hofstra vs Duke Odds, Picks and Predictions: Pride Can't Filipowski in the Post

No. 21 Duke will welcome Hofstra to town as the Blue Devils get one more warm-up game before a big-time matchup with Baylor next week.

Duke has had an up-and-down season thus far. There have been signs for the Blue Devils, but it’s mostly been filled with disappointment. They had their chances to notch resume-boosting wins against Arkansas and Arizona but lost both games in the final moments. Since then, Duke has also been upset in the college basketball odds at the hands of Georgia Tech.

Meanwhile, Hofstra has seemingly hit its stride as of late with wins in three of its last four games. What’s the best bet in this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Hofstra vs. Duke on Tuesday, December 12. 

Hofstra vs Duke best odds

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Hofstra vs Duke picks and predictions

On paper, the Wooden Award race is about as wide open as I can remember it.

I remain pretty committed to the idea that Purdue’s Zach Edey will find it nearly impossible to repeat because of historical precedence, so with that in mind, there are several options. After Edey, one of those “other” players is Duke’s Kyle Filipowski. He’ll enter today as the third choice for the award at +2,000 over at bet365, making him an appetizing choice.

I’m bullish on Filipowksi looking more and more like a Wooden Award candidate down the stretch, and I’m backing him to dominate against Hofstra tonight.

Standing at 7-foot-0, Filipowski possesses the ability to shoot from beyond the perimeter, boasting a 40% mark from 3-point range. Athletes of his caliber are rare at the non-Power Five level, and Hofstra's roster lacks players with similar skill sets.

Hofstra has also consistently struggled in defending the post this season, yielding over one point per possession on post-up plays with opponents shooting at a 52% clip. This should be a significant point of interest for Filipowski, given his unsurprising status as one of the nation's top post-up scorers.

Entering this matchup in the Top 10% of post-up scorers, Filipowski boasts 1.1 points per possession and a 60% field goal percentage down low. 

A lot is riding in our favor to get this home tonight. We’ve mentioned the physical and matchup advantages here, but there’s also the expected game flow. Hofstra has a ton of solid shotmakers and will have some decent offensive advantages. It should be able to hang around in this spot, maximizing the volume that Filipowski will get.

The culmination of this is a very strong position on the Over. Filipowski has exceeded this number against half the non-Power Five opponents he’s faced, and this game figures to be closer than any of those. 

My best bet: Kyle Filipowski Over 17.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Hofstra vs Duke same-game parlay

Kyle Filipowski Over 17.5 points

Hofstra +15.5

+281 at FanDuel

A non-correlated same-game parlay gives us a nice boost as we pair our best bet with the spread.

I’m pairing this with Hofstra to cover here, as I don’t expect them to go quietly. The Blue Devils will be without point guard Tyrese Proctor, and the freshman offers a bit of respite for Jeremy Roach when it comes to the ball-handling responsibilities.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Hofstra vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis

Spotwise, this is a potential sleepwalk for Duke, especially with a big-time matchup against Baylor looming on deck.

Additionally, Hofstra's Tyler Thomas enters tonight shooting 43% from the field, but that only partially captures his ability to hit difficult shots. Duke has shown vulnerability in defending shooters, making the Blue Devils susceptible to a player like Thomas having a standout performance.

With the total listed at 144, I lean towards the Over, with my projection coming out slightly higher at 146.5.

Hofstra takes an excessively high rate of jump shots, which means it risks offering up run-outs to Duke off those misses. So, essentially, one or two things will happen: Hofstra and its strong shooters will make these jump shots against a mediocre Duke defense, or it'll miss them, and the Blue Devils will get a plethora of transition points.

Either option tends to lend itself to the game going Over. 

Hofstra vs Duke betting trend to know

Hofstra has cashed the moneyline in 11 of its last 16 away games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Hofstra vs. Duke.

Hofstra vs Duke game info

Hofstra vs Duke key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic