Boise State vs San Diego State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Aztecs Protect Home Floor, MWC Tournament Status

The sun sets on the Mountain West Conference schedule with the No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs trying to get right before the postseason while hosting the Boise State Broncos on Friday.

The Aztecs are set up for success, pegged as 7.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds. It’s Senior Night inside Viejas Arena, where SDSU rides a 20-game winning streak, and the taste of Tuesday’s road loss at UNLV is a sour reminder that there’s still a lot of work to do.

The Broncos, who beat SDSU at home back in January, also back into this regular season finale after losing at home to Nevada this week. Boise State had won five straight games before that stumble and are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in true road games.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this MWC matchup and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Boise State vs. San Diego State on Friday, March 8.

Boise State vs San Diego State best odds

Boise State vs San Diego State picks and predictions

There’s a sense of urgency around the San Diego State Aztecs tonight. They are looking at the road ahead, which gets much tougher should they let tonight’s home tilt with the Boise State Broncos slip away.

A loss on Friday and a win from New Mexico on Saturday would knock SDSU to the No. 6 seed in the Mountain West Conference tournament, which means San Diego State would be forced to take on a play-in game next Wednesday, requiring it to win four straight games to claim the MWC tourney title.

Head coach Brian Dutcher knows that busy slate isn’t a path to success in the NCAA Tournament, putting added weight on beating the Broncos tonight.

“We have to get out of the play-in game,” Dutcher told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “That’s the fine line you walk. You want to win the conference tournament, but in doing so do you cost yourself a chance to win in the NCAA Tournament?”

Despite their unblemished record inside Viejas Arena, the Aztecs aren’t taking Boise State lightly. The Broncos beat SDSU at home in late January and have had San Diego State’s number in recent seasons, winning five of the last six matchups between these MWC foes (3-2-1 ATS).

Adding another layer of motivation for San Diego State is a chance to post the first undefeated Div-I record at home in school history. The Aztecs are 14-0 SU (8-4 ATS), owning an average margin of victory of almost 16 points per homestand.

Game projections call for a close contest Friday night, with SDSU forecasted to win by 3.5 to 6 points, which makes taking the points with Boise State tempting. However, line movement is going away from those projections with the Aztecs rising from -7 to -8 at some sharper sportsbooks. That’s also juiced the moneyline on San Diego State as well, puffing the outright odds from -296 to as high as -376.

In this case, I’m going to lean into the derivative market and take the first half/full game odds — aka Double Result — on SDSU to win the opening 20 minutes and securing the much-needed victory at -175.

San Diego is one of the better first half teams at home, boasting an average margin of +5.8 points in the opening 20 minutes and coming through on the 1H moneyline in 18 of their last 22 home games going back to last season.

My best bet: San Diego State 1H/Full Game Double Result (-175 at bet365)

Boise State vs San Diego State same-game parlay

San Diego State 1H moneyline

San Diego State moneyline

O’Mar Stanley Over 12.5 points

+230 at bet365

The Aztecs can’t afford to let Boise State build momentum early on. San Diego has cashed in for the 1H moneyline in 18 of its last 22 home games.

Avoiding the MWC tournament play-in and making history on their home court pushes SDSU to victory tonight.

Stanley doesn’t shrink on the road — averaging almost 15 points away from Boise — and hung 17 on SDSU back on Jan. 20. He’s projected for almost 15 points tonight.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Boise State vs San Diego State spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened San Diego State as a 7-point home favorite and early play on SDSU has pushed this spread to as high as -8 as of Friday morning. According to Covers Consensus, picks are split on this MWC finale 50/50.

The Aztecs are a force on their own floor, boasting a 14-0 SU mark and an 8-4 ATS record as a host. San Diego State is the top-rated defense in the Mountain West, giving up less than 62 points per homestand.

Boise State has played well away from home, with a 6-3 SU record as a visitor turning out a 5-4 ATS count on the road. The Broncos, funny enough, are the top-rated offense in the conference, with BSU averaging over 70 points per away game on the season.

These foes clashed in Boise back on January 20, with the Broncos beating SDSU 67-66 and pushing with the spread as 1-point home favorites thanks to a last-second 3-pointer from the Aztecs. That final score also stayed below the closing total of 137 points.

Tonight’s Over/Under opened at 137.5 points and has since slimmed to as low as 136 as of Friday morning. Covers Consensus counts also show an equal 50/50 split on total picks for this contest.

San Diego State is 14-14 Over/Under on the season, including a 4-8 O/U count at home. The Aztecs enter this final regular season contest on a four-game Under run and have stayed below the total in six of their last seven games overall.

As for Boise State, it’s 15-13 O/U on the season with a 5-4 O/U record on the road. The Broncos have topped the total in three of their last four outings and are 8-4 O/U in the dozen game since going Under against SDSU on Jan. 20.

Boise State vs San Diego State betting trend to know

San Diego State won outright on the moneyline in its last 21 games at home (+21.3 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Boise State vs. San Diego State.

Boise State vs San Diego State game info

Boise State vs San Diego State key injuries

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