Two of the NBA’s best teams clash tonight as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets host Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Both offenses have been rolling, and my Thunder vs. Nuggets predictions anticipate a high-scoring showdown in the Mile High City.
Read more in my free NBA picks for this primetime matchup on Sunday, February 1.
Thunder vs Nuggets prediction
Thunder vs Nuggets best bet: Over 228.5 (-110)
The Denver Nuggets boast the NBA’s best offensive rating at 121.0, while the Oklahoma City Thunder rank fifth at 117.8.
Denver’s offense should be firing on all cylinders with Nikola Jokic available, and Oklahoma City’s defense figures to take a hit with Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell all sidelined.
Jokic’s offensive impact can’t be overstated. The Nuggets average a scorching 125.6 points per game with the reigning MVP on the floor, compared to just 108.8 when he’s out of the lineup.
Entering tonight, Denver has cashed the Over in three straight, and the Thunder have gone Over in four of their last five road contests.
Oklahoma City leads the league in scoring at 120.3 ppg, with Denver close behind at 120.1. In a showdown featuring the NBA’s top two offenses, expect no shortgage of points at Ball Arena.
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Thunder vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Oklahoma City has covered the spread in just four of its last 10 games and has failed to cover in four straight. Meanwhile, Denver has covered in four of its last five contests and owns a strong 29–20 ATS record on the season.
Jokic is expected to log roughly 25–30 minutes on Sunday as Denver continues to manage his workload, but his assist prop is still too low to ignore. He’s recorded at least nine assists in 25 of 33 games this season, including 13 of 16 at home, where he’s averaging 11.4 dimes per game.
Thunder vs Nuggets SGP
- Over 228.5 (-110)
- Nuggets +4.5
- Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Shai Day!
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains one of the NBA’s elite scorers, averaging 32.0 ppg and reaching the 33-point mark 19 times this season.
After posting back-to-back 40-point performances, Gilgeous-Alexander has been held to 27.7 ppg over his last three starts. He’s due for a bounce-back, and tonight's showdown sets up as an ideal spot for SGA to reassert himself.
Thunder vs Nuggets SGP
- Over 228.5 (-110)
- Nuggets +4.5
- Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 assists
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points
Thunder vs Nuggets odds
- Spread: Thunder -4.5 (-110) | Nuggets +4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder -185 | Nuggets +155
- Over/Under: Over 228.5 (-110) | Under 228.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Nuggets betting trend to know
Denver has hit the game total Over in 31 of its last 50 games (+10.13 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Thunder vs Nuggets
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, February 1, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Thunder vs Nuggets latest injuries
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