Tonight's Lakers vs. Pistons computer picks highlight six player props for tonight's matchup at Little Caesars Arena, where the 8-2 Lakers visit the 6-2 Pistons. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET.
Austin Reaves and Cade Cunningham headline the player pool, and every pick on our board is an Under. Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with low back tightness, while Detroit center Jalen Duren is out with a hamstring strain.
See what our Covers prop projections suggest for this game, and check out more NBA picks for tonight's slate.
Lakers vs Pistons computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Lakers |
 Pistons |
|---|---|
| Austin Reaves u24.5 points 65% |
Cade Cunningham u24.5 points 50% |
| Austin Reaves u5.5 assists 55% |
Duncan Robinson u14.5 points 47% |
| Matisse Thybulle u1.5 threes 57% |
Cade Cunningham u9.5 assists 58% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Lakers computer picks
Austin Reaves Under 24.5 points (65%)
Projection: 19.10 points
Austin Reaves is averaging 23.5 points, which already sits below this 24.5 line, and the Los Angeles Lakers spread their scoring across Luka Doncic, Walker Kessler, and a deep guard rotation as they visit the Detroit Pistons. Our model projects just 19.10 points, a gap of more than five that is the widest cushion on the board. Even if Doncic is limited by his questionable tag, that margin leaves plenty of room for Reaves to take on extra usage and still stay Under.
Austin Reaves Under 5.5 assists (55%)
Projection: 4.58 assists
Reaves would likely step into the lead creator role if Doncic, who is averaging 7.7 assists, is unable to go, but he's a score-first guard, and that extra usage would show up in his shot attempts before his assist totals. The Lakers also have Quentin Grimes and Collin Sexton to share ball-handling duties, so the playmaking would be split rather than funneled through one player. Our model projects 4.58 assists, nearly a full assist below the 5.5 line, which leaves a cushion even if Reaves handles more of the offense.
Matisse Thybulle Under 1.5 threes (57%)
Projection: 1.39 threes
Matisse Thybulle earns his starting spot with defense, averaging 2.7 steals plus blocks, and his shot volume is a byproduct of that role rather than the focus of the offense. Our model projects 1.39 threes, below the 1.5 line, which means the Under only needs a normal night from a role player rather than a breakout from deep. Polymarket's 57% price backs that read.
Pistons computer picks
Cade Cunningham Under 24.5 points (50%)
Projection: 23.29 points
Cade Cunningham is averaging 24.0 points, so this line is set above his scoring average, and our model projects 23.29. He carries the Pistons' offense as both scorer and distributor, which means a good share of his production comes through passing rather than shot attempts. The 50% price makes it a coin flip on the market, but the projection and the season average both point to the Under.
Duncan Robinson Under 14.5 points (47%)
Projection: 13.25 points
Duncan Robinson is a shooter first, making 4.4 threes per game at 47.9%, so his points depend almost entirely on how many of those attempts fall. Our model projects 13.25 points, 1.25 below the 14.5 line, which means the Under only needs a slightly cooler night than his current pace. With Cunningham handling the creation duties, Robinson's scoring ceiling stays tied to his shooting rather than his shot volume.
Cade Cunningham Under 9.5 assists (58%)
Projection: 8.69 assists
Cunningham is averaging 7.6 assists, so the 9.5 line sits nearly two full assists above his season average. Our model projects 8.69, more than 0.8 below the line, and the Pistons will be without center Jalen Duren, a frontcourt target he would otherwise be passing to. That keeps the Under well positioned, and Polymarket's 58% price shows the market agrees.
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