Two Western Conference teams on separate paths cross in the Arizona desert when the Houston Rockets visit the Phoenix Suns on Monday night.
Oddsmakers have installed the surging Suns as big 12-point NBA betting favorites, having won 11 of their last 13 games while boasting an 8-5 mark against the spread in that span. Houston, on the other hand, has just three victories in its last 32 games and has covered only seven times in that skid despite catching piles of points from the bookmakers.
Dive into our free NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Suns on April 12.
Rockets vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires installed Phoenix as 12.5-point chalk to open and is down to -11.5 as of 4:45 p.m. ET. The Suns are taking 74 percent of spread tickets, but just 56 percent of spread cash. The total is up to 229 from a 227.5 opener, with the Over attracting 84 percent of tickets/81 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRockets at Suns betting preview
Injuries
Rockets: Dante Exum G (Questionable), Sterling Brown G (Out), Eric Gordon G (Out), Danuel House Jr. F (Out).
Suns: Abdel Nader F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Suns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
At what point do the Rockets become such a bad team that they’re actually a good bet? Houston may be hovering around this strange standpoint, going 2-2 ATS in its last four games including a hard-fought 133-130 loss to the Suns on April 5 in which the Rockets were getting 14 points at home.
Houston trailed by as many as 15 points in that game, but Phoenix took its foot off the gas and allowed the Rockets to string together a 13-0 run to keep things close and spoil a payday for Suns backers laying the lumber with the visitors.
Houston’s two most recent efforts don’t instill a lot of confidence, getting blasted by 16 and 17 points in road losses at Golden State and the L.A. Clippers (without John Wall), but it could catch Phoenix in a tough situational spot Monday night.
This meeting with Houston is the first of back-to-back games for the Suns, who welcome the reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat to Phoenix Suns Arena on Tuesday – their third game in four days.
That close call with Houston on April 5 came ahead of two monster matchups versus the Jazz and Clippers. Also playing into this spot bet mix is that the Suns’ win over Washington on Saturday guaranteed a winning record for the franchise for the first time since 2014. That could be a lethal letdown/lookahead combo for Suns backers.
What’s more, Phoenix has shown a bad tendency to let up after impressive wins, and that’s burdened bettors during the Suns' red-hot run in the second half of the season. The Suns haven’t covered in two straight outings since March 23, splitting ATS wins and losses over their last 10 efforts (0-5 against the spread coming off an ATS win).
The Rockets have battled Phoenix tough in two meetings this season, going 0-2 SU but leaving those contests to be decided by a total of only nine points. Let’s get comfortable being uncomfortable and ride the Rockets and the points Monday night.
PREDICTION: Houston +12 (-110)
Over/Under pick
We know what we’re going to get from the Rockets or better yet what we’re not going to get: defense. Houston is hemorrhaging points to the tune of 117.8 per game since February 6 – when things really hit the skids for this team.
The Rockets and Suns blew through a 224-point Over/Under on April 5 and Houston is 4-1 O/U in its last five games heading into Monday, fueled in part by that piss-poor defending.
As for Phoenix, its scored 120 points or more in four of its last six outings while fueling a 5-1 Over/Under count in that span. The Suns have allowed bulk points to losing teams this season and have gone Over the number in four of their last five meetings with opponents lugging a sub-.400 record.
PREDICTION: Over 229 (-110)
Player prop pick
Wall looks like he’s recovered from those leg ailments that limited him in March, pouring in 61 total points on 23-of-42 shooting in his last two outings, including a 9-for-17 mark from outside the arc.
The former Wizards standout who ended up in Houston as part of the Russell Westbrook deal got into duals with Dallas star Luka Doncic on April 7 and Golden State marksman Stephen Curry on Saturday, and now goes head-to-head with Suns scorer Devin Booker after missing the April 5 meeting with Phoenix.
Wall sat out the matchup versus the Clippers on April 9, leaving him with fresh legs for the Warriors game (30 points on 58 percent shooting) and has a day off between matchups before playing the Suns. On the season, Wall shoots at a 42-percent clip when given at least a day’s rest (vs. 35 percent on no rest).
Houston, which is headed for a 100-point restoration this summer, is expected to shop Wall this offseason and would love to puff his stat lines up to maximize its return on those trade options. That means plenty of touches for the veteran guard between now and the end of the schedule.
PREDICTION: John Wall Over 21.5 points (-118)
Rockets vs Suns betting card
- Houston +12 (-110)
- Over 229 (-110)
- John Wall Over 21.5 points (-118)
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