Nuggets vs Warriors Picks: Who's Left to Play for the Dubs?

Apr 12, 2021 |
Nuggets vs Warriors Picks: Who's Left to Play for the Dubs?
Denver's defense has improved since the Nuggets acquired forward Aaron Gordon, and they'll look to lock down a depleted Warriors club on Monday night.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Denver's defense has improved since the Nuggets acquired forward Aaron Gordon, and they'll look to lock down a depleted Warriors club on Monday night.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets will look to string together another winning streak as they face off against the Golden State Warriors in NBA action on Monday night. 

The Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end last night but oddsmakers are expecting them to bounce back against the Warriors, installing them as 4.5-point road favorites. 

Here are our best free Nuggets vs. Warriors picks and predictions for NBA betting action on Monday, April 12. Tipoff will be at 10 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. 

Nuggets vs Warriors odds

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NBA sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Denver went up as a 4-point favorite at TwinSpires and is -4.5 as of 7:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are taking 72 percent of tickets and 80 percent of money on the point spread. The total is up a point to 226.5, with 66 percent of tickets/72 percent of dollars on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Nuggets at Warriors betting preview


Nuggets: Jamal Murray (Questionable).
Warriors: Kelly Oubre Jr. SF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson SG (Out), Eric Paschall PF (Out). 

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Warriors.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Nuggets are fresh off an ugly 18-point loss at home against the Celtics last night. However, they are still the hottest team in the league and have gone 17-4 SU and 13-8 ATS over their last 21 games. 

Denver center Nikola Jokic has led the way with 26.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. But the MVP favorite has plenty of help with Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and the newly acquired Aaron Gordon rounding out a strong supporting cast.

Murray has missed the last four games with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. While Murray's absence really hurt the Nuggets' offensive performance against the Celtics they should be able to bounce back against a Warriors team that surrenders 114 points per game. 

Golden State has been riddled with injuries and rookie James Wiseman is the latest addition to the IR, joining Kelly Oubre, Eric Paschall, and All-Star Klay Thompson, who has been out all season.

The Warriors are coming off a 125-109 win over the Houston Rockets but are still just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. They are also 1-5 ATS in their previous six contests following a SU or ATS win so they could come out a bit flat tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road and have gone 4-0 ATS in their previous four contests after a loss. Expect Denver to bounce back with a win and cover tonight.

PREDICTION: Denver -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under pick

The total for this game opened at 228.5 and has dropped down to 226. Although the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the league, the Nuggets play at the second slowest. 

Denver has also been even better on defense since trading for Gordon, holding opponents to 104.9 ppg in eight games with Gordon in the lineup.

Injuries could also play a role in this with Denver possibly missing Murray and his 21.3 ppg on 48/41/86 shooting while the Dubs will be without their third and fourth leading scorers in Oubre (15.3 ppg) and Wiseman (11.5 ppg on 52 percent shooting). 

The Under has cashed in six of Denver's last seven games on the road while Golden State has gone 5-2 to the Under in its previous seven games against teams with a winning record. Go with the line movement and take the Under. 

PREDICTION: Under 226 (-110)

Player prop pick

Denver might have the current MVP front-runner in Jokic but the Warriors have a two-time MVP winner in Steph Curry

Curry has been red-hot lately, scoring over 30 points in six straight games and coming off a 38-point performance against Houston. He also torched the Nuggets for 35 points on 14-for-23 shooting when these two sides previously met up in January.

With the injuries piling up for Golden State, Curry will have to carry their offense once again so back the Over 30.5 on his points total. 

PREDICTION: Stephen Curry Points Over 30.5 (-120)

Nuggets vs Warriors betting card

  • Denver -4.5 (-110)
  • Under 226 (-110)
  • Stephen Curry Points Over 30.5 (-120)

Picks made on 4/12/2021 at 12:12 p.m. ET

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