The Miami Heat will be looking for a win after a rough road trip as they host the Houston Rockets on Saturday afternoon.
Miami loves to run the floor, and I’m banking on that to be enough to hit the Over in my Rockets vs. Heat predictions.
Let’s do a full breakdown of this afternoon’s matchup in my free NBA picks for Saturday, February 28.
Rockets vs Heat prediction
Rockets vs Heat best bet: Over 225.5 (-110)
Both teams have hit the Over in their last three games. While the Houston Rockets don’t always play that way, it’s business as usual for the Miami Heat, who have averaged a total of 236.2 ppg on the season.
Miami plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 106.7 possessions per game, two more than its closest competitor. All those possessions will suit the Rockets, as Houston is ninth in the NBA in offensive efficiency, even though they normally slow down the pace.
The combination of scoring punch and a fast tempo make the Over tonight’s play.
Rockets vs Heat same-game parlay
The Rockets are the better team and have won four of their last five, which makes me confident they can pull out a win in Miami tonight.
Kevin Durant will be key to that effort, as he’s coming off a 40-point effort against the Magic and has scored 30+ in three of his last five games.
Rockets vs Heat SGP
- Over 225.5
- Rockets moneyline
- Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: We have liftoff
The Rockets have covered the spread in four straight games.
Let’s also back Alperen Sengun to pick up a double-double after his triple-double performance against the Kings on Wednesday, and take Tari Eason to get Over 6.5 rebounds, something he’s accomplished in three of his last four contests.
Rockets vs Heat SGP
- Rockets -2.5
- Kevin Durant Over 26.5 points
- Alperen Sengun double-double
- Tari Eason Over 6.5 rebounds
Rockets vs Heat odds
- Spread: Rockets -2.5 | Heat +2.5
- Moneyline: Rockets -135 | Heat +115
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Rockets vs Heat betting trend to know
The Over is 3-0 in the last three games for both Houston and Miami. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Heat.
How to watch Rockets vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Saturday, February 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Rockets vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
