Tonight's Pacers vs. Mavericks computer picks highlight six player props for tonight's matchup at American Airlines Center, where the 3-7 Pacers visit the 6-4 Mavericks. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET.
Cooper Flagg, Kyrie Irving, and Ivica Zubac headline the player pool, and Indiana is shorthanded, with point guard Tyrese Haliburton out with a hamstring injury. See what our Covers prop projections suggest for this game, and check out more NBA picks for tonight's slate.
Pacers vs Mavericks computer picks
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Pacers |
 Mavericks |
|---|---|
| Ivica Zubac o9.5 points 61% |
Kyrie Irving u2.5 threes 44% |
| Andrew Nembhard u1.5 threes 43% |
Cooper Flagg u24.5 points 46% |
| Andrew Nembhard u14.5 points 47% |
Cooper Flagg u1.5 threes 59% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Pacers computer picks
Ivica Zubac Over 9.5 points (61%)
Projection: 11.70 points
Ivica Zubac is the interior anchor for the Indiana Pacers, and with Tyrese Haliburton out, Indiana will lean on its big man for touches near the basket. The Dallas Mavericks are also missing center Dereck Lively II, which could thin their frontcourt. Our model projects 11.70 points, more than two above the 9.5 line, and Polymarket's 61% price shows the market agrees.
Andrew Nembhard Under 1.5 threes (43%)
Projection: 1.49 threes
Andrew Nembhard is averaging 2.5 threes per game, so this is a contrarian angle, but our model projects 1.49, right at the 1.5 line. Dallas allows just 109.1 points per game, and a defense that stingy gives few clean looks to a Pacers team already without Haliburton, Ben Sheppard, and Johnny Furphy. Polymarket's 43% price shows the market is split, which makes this the thinnest edge on the board.
Andrew Nembhard Under 14.5 points (47%)
Projection: 14.20 points
Nembhard is averaging 17.8 points, so this Under rests on the projection rather than his season average. Our model expects him to come in at 14.20 points, 0.3 below the line, against a Dallas defense that allows 109.1 points per game, compared with 114.2 for Indiana. Polymarket's 47% price makes this a narrow, model-driven lean.
Mavericks computer picks
Kyrie Irving Under 2.5 threes (44%)
Projection: 2.30 threes
Kyrie Irving is averaging 2.9 threes, so this is a model-driven Under, but our projection of 2.30 sits 0.2 below the line. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite on the second night of a back-to-back, a combination that can trim late minutes for starters if the lead is comfortable. Polymarket's 44% price shows the market leaning the other way, which is what makes this a contrarian play.
Cooper Flagg Under 24.5 points (46%)
Projection: 23.92 points
Cooper Flagg is averaging 24.0 points, so the 24.5 line sits above his season average, and our model projects 23.92. With Irving averaging 21.4 points alongside him, Flagg does not need to force his scoring, and a Dallas lead on the second night of a back-to-back could limit his minutes. Polymarket's 46% price makes this a close call, so treat it as a lean rather than a lock.
Cooper Flagg Under 1.5 threes (59%)
Projection: 1.31 threes
Flagg is averaging just 1.2 threes per game, below this 1.5 line, and our model projects 1.31, so both his average and the projection point to the Under. His production does not depend on volume from 3-point range, which keeps this Under in play. Polymarket's 59% price is the second-highest on the board, making this the cleanest Under on the Mavericks side.
Not intended for use in MA.
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