Tonight's eight-game NBA slate tips off with the Los Angeles Lakers visiting the Atlanta Hawks at 7 p.m. ET and wraps up with the New Orleans Pelicans against the Golden State Warriors at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all eight matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket market prices.
The Detroit Pistons are the biggest favorites at 83%, while the Charlotte Hornets are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 20%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page on Monday, Nov. 9.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 9
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Wizards Pistons |
83% |
 Cavaliers Hornets |
20% |
 Lakers Hawks |
44% |
 Grizzlies Raptors |
58% |
 Pacers Mavericks |
42% |
 Nuggets Rockets |
76% |
 Spurs  Suns |
74% |
 Pelicans Warriors |
78% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 9
Wizards vs Pistons: Pistons
Washington Wizards forward/center Anthony Davis has missed back-to-back games with a sprained ankle, but he appears to be nearing a return and could suit up against the Detroit Pistons.
I'm projecting Davis for 31 minutes, and Detroit still holds a slight edge with an 83% win probability despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Your edge increases considerably if Davis is ruled out, but it's encouraging that the value remains even if he's cleared.
Cavaliers vs Hornets: Hornets
The Charlotte Hornets are missing several high-usage players for their matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Kon Knueppel reaggravated his hamstring injury and is expected to miss roughly four weeks, while Brandon Miller is also sidelined with a groin injury.
Despite those absences, I'm willing to take the side nobody wants. I price Charlotte closer to a 27% underdog, making the 20% market price an excellent buy.
Lakers vs Hawks: Hawks
I price the Atlanta Hawks closer to a 48% underdog, so I'll gladly take the 44% currently available.
Luka Doncic is sitting out the front end of the Lakers' back-to-back against Detroit. I expect he'll suit up against Atlanta and play his usual minutes. However, even with Doncic included in my projections, I'm still backing the Hawks at this probability.
Atlanta's abundance of point-of-attack defenders and switchable wings makes this an especially appealing matchup. The Hawks have the personnel to disrupt actions involving Doncic and Austin Reaves, two players who virtually drive everything the Lakers do offensively.
Few teams have the wing-defender combination needed to consistently challenge both players, but Atlanta has the personnel to make life difficult for the Lakers.
Grizzlies vs Raptors: Raptors
This is a matchup where Zach Edey could struggle to find his footing, potentially forcing the Memphis Grizzlies into a smaller lineup that would better suit the Toronto Raptors' preferred style of play.
The Raptors can push the tempo, use high ball screens to force Edey to defend in space, and test his ability to keep up in transition. I expect those challenges to frustrate Edey throughout the game.
At 58%, there's a slight edge in backing Toronto, but buyer beware: my projection assumes both Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes are available. Both are listed as questionable after being limited participants in Sunday's practice.
Pacers vs Mavericks: Pacers
At 42%, I'll gladly hit the button on the Indiana Pacers, which I price closer to a 46% underdog against the Dallas Mavericks.
Daniel Gafford is expected to be limited to 20-25 minutes, leaving Dallas' frontcourt vulnerable. That creates an opportunity for Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam to generate efficient offense around the rim.
Another factor working in Indiana's favor is the return of T.J. McConnell, which helps soften the blow of Tyrese Haliburton's absence.
McConnell provides another capable playmaker who can find the big men on the interior and create easy scoring opportunities, adding another dimension to the Pacers' offense.
Nuggets vs Rockets: Rockets
At 76%, the Houston Rockets don't offer much value under normal circumstances, but it looks like the Denver Nuggets could be preparing to punt this game by resting their entire starting lineup.
I've seen Denver take this approach before, listing everyone as questionable before ultimately ruling out the entire starting five.
If the Nuggets officially sit all five starters, Houston becomes an appealing play, and my projections would give the Rockets an edge at the current 76% market price.
Spurs vs Suns: Spurs
Without Mark Williams, this is a difficult matchup for the Phoenix Suns. They'll have to cover all 48 minutes at center against Victor Wembanyama using an undersized Oso Ighodaro and a still-developing Khaman Maluach.
With the San Antonio Spurs' three guards consistently breaking down Phoenix's perimeter defense and nobody equipped to consistently challenge Wembanyama at the rim, I see a significant matchup advantage for the visitors.
I'll back San Antonio at the 74% market price.
Pelicans vs Warriors: Warriors
Nobody is running hotter than the Golden State Warriors, and the New Orleans Pelicans are an ideal matchup for them given their biggest weakness.
Golden State lacks center depth and is forced to start the 6-foot-7 Draymond Green at the position. Fortunately for the Warriors, New Orleans has similar frontcourt issues.
Derik Queen and Karlo Matkovic are more comfortable operating on the perimeter than playing bully ball in the paint or attacking the glass.
That plays right into Green's strengths. He can comfortably defend both bigs away from the basket, and neither presents the kind of interior threat that typically exposes Golden State's lack of size.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Hawks
Pacers
Warriors
I'm building the combo around the Hawks, Pacers and Warriors because I believe Atlanta and Indiana offer the biggest probability gaps on the board, while Golden State has the strongest pure basketball matchup working in its favor.
With the two lower-probability teams tipping off earlier, we'll have a chance to get two green checkmarks before the Warriors take the floor. That would leave us one leg away from cashing the combo, with a 78% favorite closing things out in the 10 p.m. ET window.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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