The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks Eastern Conference Finals meeting seems like ages ago. While we may be a long way off from that happening again, the rivalry between the two remains tense, and both need a win.
The Raptors have dropped two in a row, which includes being upset by the Minnesota Timberwolves last time out, while the Bucks have lost three straight, going 0-3 ATS to close out a long road trip.
Find out who we like to cover the 5.5-point spread in our NBA free picks and predictions for Raptors vs. Bucks on Tuesday, February 16 with tipoff scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET.
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks betting preview
Injuries
Raptors: OG Anunoby F (Doubtful), Yuta Watanabe F (Doubtful), Patrick McCaw (Out).
Bucks: Jrue Holiday G (Out), Jordan Nwora F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in the Raptors' last seven road games and 7-2-1 in the Bucks' last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Bucks.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThe Bucks hit the odds board as 6-point favorites at FanDuel and made a few trips to -5.5, but are back at the opener as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Ticket count is 3/1 and money just shy of 4/1 on Milwaukee. The total bounced around a lot from a 233 opener, initially upping to 234, then falling to 232.5 before shooting to 236. Ticket count is 2/1 and money 3/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
The Raptors have bounced back from a 2-8 start, but the loss to the Wolves was a bad one. The Raps' biggest problems this season were apparent in that game. They continue to be inconsistent shooting the ball, hitting only 30 percent of their threes vs. Minnesota, while getting outrebounded by arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA.
Simply put, the Raptors will need to hit their threes and clean up the glass if they want to keep this one close and cover against the Bucks. But luckily, they may just get that chance.
The Bucks are in a slump, losing the final three games of their lengthy February road trip straight up and ATS. While Milwaukee’s offense is as high-tempo as ever, their defense has taken a step back.
The Bucks led the NBA in defensive rating last season, but so far this year they only rank 13th. The area where they have really struggled has been on the perimeter, where they rank 27th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Now, they take on a Raptors team that jacks up over 40 threes per game, with only the Jazz and Blazers taking more. It also doesn’t help that one of their best defenders, Jrue Holiday, is out due to COVID for the next little while.
On top of that, the first home game after a long road trip can be very difficult, while no other team has more experience playing on the road than the displaced Raptors. Take the points with the underdogs in this one.
PREDICTION: Raptors +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The total may be the main event for bettors in this NBA battle. The Raptors just had their eight-game Over streak snapped last time out against the Timberwolves, but they missed going Over by just one bucket.
Defense was supposed to be a strength of the Raptors this season, but thus far they have just been middle of the pack at that end of the floor. Toronto ranks 18th in defensive rating and are giving up 116.8 points per contest over their last nine games.
As noted, offense hasn’t been a problem for the Bucks, who lead the league in offensive rating and are second in scoring per game. Mix in Milwaukee’s defensive struggles and the fact both teams are trending towards the Over, and we aren’t fading that to change in this one, even with a number this high.
PREDICTION: Over 235 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
One of those 3-point-happy Raptors is veteran point guard Kyle Lowry. After a slow start to the season, the Raps’ franchise icon is starting to heat up. Lowry is shooting 43.1 percent from downtown over his last 10 games, and the fiery point guard tends to get up for big games. The last time he faced the Bucks at the end of January he went 6-for-9 from beyond the arc. We’re betting he goes Over his made threes total in this one.
PREDICTION: Kyle Lowry Over 2.5 Made Threes (-140)
Raptors vs Bucks betting card
- Raptors +5.5 (-110)
- Over 235 (-110)
- Kyle Lowry Over 2.5 Made Threes (-140)
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