It’s a classic offense vs. defense matchup as the Brooklyn Nets visit the Phoenix Suns. The Nets have been an Over bettor’s dream this season, but are the Suns good enough to put a wrench in that betting trend?
While the Nets will be without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, they had no trouble lighting up the scoreboard without Durant in their last game, and the Suns are heating up on offense in their own right. Does the total stand a chance in this matchup?
Find out what we are betting in our NBA free picks and predictions for Nets vs. Suns on Tuesday, February 16 with tipoff scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns betting preview
Injuries
Nets: Kevin Durant F (Out), Kyrie Irving G (Out), Iman Shumpert G (Out), Nicolas Claxton F (Out), Spencer Dinwiddie G (Out).
Suns: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 20-3 in the Nets’ last 23 games overall and 10-1 in their last 11 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Suns.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonNo Kevin Durant and no Kyrie Irving led to significant shifts in this line over the course of the day at DraftKings. Phoenix opened -3 and as of 5:30 p.m. is out to -7.5, with 62 percent of bets on the Nets and 54 percent of money on the Suns. The total plunged from 231.5 to 226.5, mostly on the news of who's not playing, as ticket count and money are both beyond 9/1 on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Despite missing Kevin Durant, the Nets are coming off a 136-125 shootout win against the Sacramento Kings. The win, Brooklyn's third in a row (straight up and ATS), saw James Harden and Kyrie Irving shoot a combined 15-21 from 3-point range.
The Nets have been shooting the lights out ever since Harden arrived, ranking second in offensive rating and three-point shooting percentage, but what makes them an Over bettor's dream (more on that later) is their ineptitude at the other end of the floor. That doesn’t bode well against a red-hot Suns team.
Phoenix has won and covered six straight ball games and is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. The Suns have hung their hat on defense this season, and they’ll be able to focus their efforts on Harden with Irving getting the night off.
The Suns rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating and scoring defense, allowing just 107.8 points per game. But what has really made Phoenix look impressive has been their improvement on offense. The Suns are averaging 118.3 points per game over their six-game winning streak and the Nets should put up little resistance.
Without Durant and Irving in the lineup for the Nets, we like the Suns to stay hot and cover at home.
PREDICTION: Suns -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
But who cares about the side? It’s the total we are all here to see. Yes, Brooklyn’s Overs are the best betting trend going in the NBA, going 20-3 O/U in their last 23 games, including 10-1 in their last 11 on the road.
The question is whether or not the Suns’ defense is good enough to slow down the Nets and prevent this one from going Over as well. As mentioned, the Suns rank fourth in defensive rating and should be able to have some success with their full attention on Harden. But he is still capable of getting buckets when he wants and if he can carry his team to the 110-point mark or so, this one should go Over — because it’s Brooklyn's defense that makes them an Over bettor’s dream.
The Nets rank 27th in defensive rating since the Harden trade and no one gives up more points on a per-game basis. Mix that with the surging Suns offense and we’re not fading this trend anytime soon.
PREDICTION: Over 229.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
One of those Suns players responsible for the rise in offense is wing Mikal Bridges. The third-year man out of Villanova has always been a tremendous defender, but now he is helping out on the offensive end as well. On the season, Bridges is averaging 14.3 points per game and is shooting 39.5 percent from deep, while over his last five games those numbers have jumped to 16.2 points per game and 50 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Now, he gets to go against the “defense is optional” Nets with a point total of just 12.5 — a number he has gone Over in four of those five games. Sign us up.
PREDICTION: Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points (-120)
Nets vs Suns betting card
- Suns -5 (-110)
- Over 231 (-110)
- Mikal Bridges Over 12.5 Points (-120)
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