The sexy sleeper pick for the opening round of the NBA Playoffs is for the Toronto Raptors to upset the Philadelphia 76ers.
The matchup warrants a closer look, as Toronto did defeat Philadelphia in three of their four meetings this season, most recently a 119-114 victory at home on April 7. Add in the Raptors’ transition attack poking at Philly’s defensive soft spots and that defense missing standout Matisse Thybulle for trips to Toronto, and you can understand why basketball bettors are skeptical of the Sixers.
We put those prognostications to the test with our free NBA picks and predictions for Raptors at 76ers Game 1 on April 16.
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Raptors vs 76ers odds
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Philadelphia opened as a 5-point home favorite and has slipped to as low as -4 before buyback on the home team ticked the line up to -4.5. The total hit the board at 217.5 and dropped as low as 216.5 before coming back up to a market consensus of 217 as of Wednesday morning.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Raptors vs 76ers predictions
Predictions made on 4/13/2022 at 12:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Raptors vs 76ers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Saturday, April 16, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Raptors vs 76ers series odds
Raptors: +150
76ers: -178
Raptors vs 76ers betting preview
Key injuries
Raptors: None.
76ers: Paul Millsap F (Probable), Georges Niang C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Toronto is 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS as a franchise in Game 1 of the playoff series. The Raptors went 2-2 SU and ATS in Game 1’s of their magical title run with Kawhi Leonard in 2019. Just sayin’. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. 76ers.
Raptors vs 76ers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Thybulle controversy has been one of the more talked about wrinkles of this series, but the Sixers will have the services of their top defender for Saturday’s postseason opener at home. And they’ll need him. The 6-foot-5 shooting guard is vital to slowing up a Toronto offense that thrives in transition, with athletic players who can run the floor.
While Thybulle’s disruptive defense is part of the puzzle, the biggest piece for Philadelphia is exploiting its massive advantage inside. Center Joel Embiid can piggyback on his scoring title and have a huge series against an undersized Raptors frontcourt.
Embiid bullied the Raptors around the rim in the regular season, averaging 29 points and 11 rebounds in three games versus Toronto. And even when he wasn’t having great shooting success, he was picking up points at the foul line, like that most recent clash with the Raps.
The Raptors really have to pick their poison when it comes to checking Embiid and the Sixers. If the 76ers center dominates inside and shoots high-percentage shots, it works against Toronto’s transition approach on offense — having to inbound the ball on most possessions, slowing down the game, and allowing the Sixers to get set on defense.
If you toss double teams — and probably even triple teams — at Embiid in the blocks, you run the risk of getting blasted by the 76ers’ other offensive threats, namely James Harden. Harden has been lambasted the past few weeks for his inconsistent efforts, including a 3-for-12 shooting performance in that last meeting with Toronto.
I’m going to give the former MVP the benefit of the doubt, at least in Game 1 at home, and praise Philadelphia’s supporting players as well. Speedster Tyrese Maxey has thrived against Toronto, averaging almost 20 points over his four outings versus the Raps.
He and Harden have given the Sixers’ scoring portfolio a new page with a tough transition attack of their own, folding in a dependent third option on offense. Philadelphia can beat you in the halfcourt anchored by Embiid, break you down in isolation with Harden, and put you on your heels by pushing the pace.
Game 1 is not normally a high-pressure situation for home favorites in the opening round of the playoffs, but the Sixers are really feeling the squeeze considering the season series, Thybulle’s half-vax status keeping him out of Canada, and every talking head picking Toronto to win.
I like the Sixers to shut all that chatter down on Saturday… or at least until Game 2.
Prediction: 76ers -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, the 76ers may have their way on offense if they play this one right and Harden shows up.
There’s no scenario in which Toronto stops Embiid with their current frontcourt and attempting to do so means throwing multiple bodies at the big man and playing him physically, hoping the refs put the whistles away in the playoffs.
Embiid made 31 of 37 free throws in his three contests with the Raptors this season and scoring from the line — most notably scoring with the clock stopped — would help pull the plug on Toronto’s transition the other way.
The Raptors will still have their opportunities to run, especially if the Sixers' support staff can’t connect from outside and leaves long rebounds up for grabs. Toronto owns the fifth-highest transition frequency in the league, averaging 22.5 points per game in those playsets.
Philadelphia’s defense, on the other hand, has been bowled over by tempo attack, allowing the highest-scoring frequency in the league to transition. Many of Toronto’s transition series end in 3-pointers, which has been the team’s calling card for a while.
The Raptors were 15-for-33 from distance in April’s win inside the Wells Fargo Center and Toronto has shot well from outside against the 76ers, connecting on better than 38% of those long-range looks for an average of almost 13 triples per contest — a tick up from the Raps' regular season shooting of 34.9% and 11.9 made 3-pointers per contest.
These Atlantic Division foes went Over the total in three of their four matchups this season and Saturday’s total feels low considering the scoring from the foul line, the potential tempo, and the Sixers' offensive options.
Prediction: Over 216.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Raptors roll into the postseason with a lot of momentum, having won 14 of their last 18 games. The offense has seen the most significant jump in this span, with Toronto’s advanced rating jumping from 111.0 to 116.3.
Toronto averaged more than 113 points per game during that home stretch, on the back of improved play from Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., and first-year forward Scottie Barnes, who blew through the rookie wall like the Kool-Aid Man.
We mentioned Philadelphia’s problems putting the breaks on transition teams and we’ve also noted Toronto’s uptick in 3-point success against the Sixers: two factors that should help the Raptors to continue putting up points.
More points than the 76ers? Maybe. More points than their 106.5-point team total. Oh hell yes.
Toronto has posted 107 or more points in 12 of those past 18 games and did so with Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby in and out of the lineup. On the flip side, since acquiring Harden, the Sixers have checked opponents to 106 points or less in just 10 of 24 contests.
Pick: Raptors Over Team Total 106.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
