Best NBA Player Props Today: Kuzma Leaves His Imprint Against Former Team

Prop bet #1: Offense runs through Steph

We're placing a bet on Steph Curry's assists prop, but this bet is just as much about Chris Paul as it is about Curry. In the Golden State Warriors' previous game against the Wizards, Paul returned from an extended absence due to injury. Earlier in the season, anytime Paul was playing, there had to be an adjustment to Curry's assists prop because it moved Curry off the ball.

That's exactly what the sportsbooks have done here with Curry's assists, but I don't think it needed quite the adjustment considering the rotations are very different for the Warriors now than they were at the beginning of the season.

While Paul was injured, the Warriors found a starting lineup that works very well together, and it's very clear that Steve Kerr doesn't want to mess with it. Even with Andrew Wiggins out for personal reasons, Kerr opted to start Moses Moody and continue to keep Paul and Klay Thompson on the bench.

When Curry is on the floor, it's his offense to run, and he is also playing alongside the lob threat of Jonathan Kuminga, which really helps Steph's assists prop compared to earlier in the season.

Curry is projected to have 5.4 assists on Thursday against the New York Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 assists at -167, but it is available at -125 at DraftKings. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.

Stephen Curry prop: Over 4.5 assists (-125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Feeling Giddey

Josh Giddey isn't having a good season, and his career is kind of trending the wrong way. But when it comes to his player props, the numbers reflect his level of play this year and not who he was last season for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

There are two things I like here for Giddey, and one of them is that he is low-key a stat padder against the bottom-feeding teams in the NBA. Go check out his game logs throughout the season; he dropped 12 dimes against Portland, and nine against Washington.

The more important part for Giddey is the upcoming matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. Have you seen the highlight of Victor Wembanyama blocking the shot of Monte Morris at the rim like he is playing against his little cousin in the driveway? With Wembanyama patrolling the paint, the ball needs to be moving, and someone needs to drive the lane, draw the attention of Wembanyama, and then dish the ball to a cutter for an open layup or dunk at the rim.

This is literally Giddey's game, and he does it very well, especially when working with Jalen Williams as the cutter. The minutes won't be high for Giddey; that's who he is as a player, but his style of game really fits how the Thunder will need to attack Wembanyama on Thursday. 

Giddey is projected to have 4.4 assists on Thursday against the Spurs, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -160, but it is available at bet365 for -130.

Josh Giddey prop: Over 3.5 assists (-130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Kuzma shines against former team 

My favorite thing in NBA player prop betting is happening with Kyle Kuzma's assists prop. A probability gap in the odds that we can exploit like any other bet, but also an added motivational angle that can't be quantified.

A matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, a team Kuzma won an NBA championship with, will always hold significance for the Washington Wizards forward. 

But as fired up as Kuzma will be to play against the Lakers on Thursday at Crypto.com Arena, the Lakers will also have a strong scouting report on Kuzma and how to keep him away from his favorite spots on the court, which will make him more of a passer than a scorer.

Kuzma is projected to have 3.9 assists against the Lakers, which means we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -116, but it is available at bet365 at +135. This represents a big probability gap, which represents a positive expected value of 26%.

Kyle Kuzma prop: Over 3.5 assists (+135 at bet365)