Best NBA Player Props Today: Ivey Does Damage from Beyond the Arc

Jaden Ivey looks like one of the few promising pieces for the Detroit Pistons during this disastrous season, and his threes prop against a struggling Knicks' defense is one of the highlighted NBA picks for tonight's slate.

Feb 26, 2024 • 15:14 ET • 4 min read
Jaden Ivey Detroit Pistons NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

It’s a light night of NBA action with just four games on the board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the NBA player props market.

So, I’ve dug through the NBA odds and found you some prop bets that I love. Pascal Siakam plays his former team once again when the Indiana Pacers take on the Toronto Raptors, but it’s one of Spicy P’s new teammates who I like to impact the scoreboard.

The New York Knicks need O.G. Anunoby back in a bad way, and even the Detroit Pistons can take advantage of this matchup. And finally, Jaren Jackson Jr. should be a beast on the boards when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Brooklyn Nets.

Check out my free NBA picks for February 26 below.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on February 26 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for February 26

Prop bet #1: Working Nembhard

Pascal Siakam takes on his former team for the second time as a member of the Indiana Pacers, and while there is a Spicy P prop I like for this matchup — which you can find in my Raptors vs. Pacers betting preview — there's another play I’m eyeing for this matchup.

The Pacers rank second in offensive rating and first in effective field goal percentage this season, and while Tyrese Haliburton is the catalyst, part of the reason for this is they have a deep roster full of young talent like Andrew Nembhard

The 24-year-old out of Gonzaga is putting up 9.2 points per game while shooting 50.1% from the field this season, but he's seen an uptick in his production recently.

In his last 15 full games (he played six seconds of a game vs. the Sacramento Kings before getting hurt), Nembhard has upped his points to 11.9 per game while shooting 52.8% from the floor — including 36.8% from 3-point range. And tonight he gets a juicy matchup against a Raptors team that is lacking at the defensive end of the floor.

Since Toronto traded O.G. Anunoby to the Knicks, its defense has cratered. The Raps rank next to last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating since January 1, so they aren’t stopping anyone from getting buckets.

Nembhard’s point total for this one is at 10.5. He’s gone Over this number in nine of his last 17 games, which includes putting up 14 against the Raptors when these teams last met back on February 14.

Andrew Nembhard prop: Over 10.5 points (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Poison Ivey

It’s been a tough season for the Detroit Pistons. An 8-48 record is ugly no matter how you slice it, but as bad as it has been, there are some bright spots. Cade Cunningham is promising, and it looks like backcourt mate Jaden Ivey might work out for the Pistons as well. 

Ivey is averaging 15.1 points with 3.7 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game this season. While the scoring has gone down slightly, his efficiency has gone up. His effective field goal percentage is at 51.4%, well up from the 47.7% it was last season.

He’s particularly improved his shooting from beyond the arc recently. Ivey is shooting 46.3% on his 5.1 three-point attempts per game over his last 16 games. And while a matchup against the Knicks might have been a terrible one about a month ago, that’s not the case anymore.

New York needs O.G. back... badly. The Knicks looked like arguably the best team in the NBA for about a month after trading for the 3-and-D wing, but they've gone 5-6 since he suffered an injury.

In fact, the Knicks rank 21st in defensive rating and are surrendering the second-worst opponent 3-point shooting percentage (41.6%) over this 11-game stretch without Anunoby. 

Ivey has hit two or more threes 12 times in his last 17 games, and yet we are getting him to do so once again at even money? Sign me up.

Jaden Ivey prop: Over 1.5 made threes (+100 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Boards a plenty

Life must be pretty tough for Jaren Jackson Jr. The Memphis Grizzlies forward is basically the last man standing on a team going nowhere this season, thanks in large part to an injury list that is about as bad as it gets.

But Jackson soldiers on, and I’ve found a prop bet I like for him when he takes the floor tonight against the maybe equally bad Brooklyn Nets.

Jackson is averaging 22.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game this season, and while it’s clear JJJ has upped his scoring production because well, who else is going to score in Memphis, I like him to put in some work on the glass tonight. That’s partly because of the matchup. 

The Nets are in a bad spot right now. They are just 2-7 in February and their offense has fallen off a cliff. Brooklyn ranks next to last in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and scoring offense over that period and is putting up just 105.8 points per game.

Additionally, the Nets have been held to 100 points or fewer five times in those games. That includes 93 or less in each of the last three.

That means bricks, and lots of them. Which in turn means lots of rebounds for Jackson to gobble up. Brooklyn already ranks a sub-par 19th in rebounding rate. So, I’m backing JJJ to go grab 6+ boards tonight.

Jaren Jackson Jr. prop: 6+ rebounds (+120 at FanDuel)

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