Pelicans vs Spurs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Wembanyama Causes Pell-Mell for Pelicans Defense

They’ve finally done it. After weeks of ineptitude, the San Antonio Spurs snapped a franchise-worst 18-game losing streak with their win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday night. Victor Wembanyama did a little bit of everything in the win while Devin Vassell led the way with 36 points. 

However, they’re in for an entirely different kind of test if they want to make it two in a row, as they face off against Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, December 17 as 8-point underdogs in the NBA odds.

My NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Spurs are once again turning to Wemby, as I think he’s still being seriously undervalued as a rebounder as San Antonio’s full-time five.

Pelicans vs Spurs odds

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Pelicans vs Spurs predictions

While Chet Holmgren rushed out to an early lead in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds race, it has been the play of preseason favorite Victor Wembanyama that has dominated the rookie ladder headlines over the last several games. 

Gregg Popovic famously quipped before the season had begun that they had no idea what position Wemby would ideally develop into and play, and that they weren’t giving him many instructions as they saw how he naturally played on the court.

That experimental period is thankfully over, and now Wemby is playing his natural position at the five. Though he has a long way to go in terms of developing strength and bulk to bang with the NBA’s best on a night-in-night-out basis, he’s immediately validated the move. 

While Victor was off to a strong season by any standard when he was playing the power forward spot, it’s only really since he’s become the starting five that he’s begun to demonstrate how he can and will dominate games for years to come.

So I’m going back to the well on Victor’s rebounding prop on Sunday, as the Victor Wembanyama odds are still far too anchored to his prior play in my opinion. Particularly against the Pelicans, who outside of Jonas Valanciunas are not a strong rebounding squad. 

Victor has already demonstrated how he can outrebound even heavier, stronger opponents. He’s learning to leverage his otherworldly length to snag rebounds nobody else in the NBA could nab without committing a foul.

Not to say that he isn’t still learning how to stay out of foul trouble, but he’s already shown rapid growth in know-how on the glass and how to use his unique talents to overmatch players like Valanciunas with superior strength and physicality.

And the best of Wemby’s traits, which I’ve harped on before, is his mentality. He simply does not get discouraged, not by an 18-game losing streak, and certainly not by being put into the basket on a finish by stronger, more veteran opponents. If Anthony Davis couldn’t shake Wemby’s confidence on the glass, then nobody on the Pelicans stands a chance.

My best bet: Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds (+105 at bet365)

Pelicans vs Spurs same-game parlay

Victor Wembanyama Over 12.5 rebounds

Devin Vassell Over 2.5 3s

Over 238

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In addition to my best bet on Wemby, I like Devin Vassell to hit Over 2.5 3s, as well as the Over on the game total.

The Pels have strong wing defenders but also have numerous weak points that even the Spurs can easily attack. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are both guilty of defensive lapses, CJ McCollum has always struggled on that side of the ball, and Valanciunas doesn’t have elite mobility in the pick-and-roll. 

The Pelicans allow more opponent threes than all but one team, and Vassell is exactly the kind of quick-twitch guard capable of jittering into gaps in the Pelicans’ defense. The Spurs Over has also been found money this season, going 16-8 overall. 

DraftKings is offering up to $5 back if your first SGP of the day in any sport doesn't hit, so it makes sense to play it there.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Spurs spread and Over/Under analysis

New Orleans opened as -6.5-point favorites, a line that has quickly risen to -8. The Pels have been one of the stronger teams against the spread this season, going 15-10-1 ATS overall, but they’ve been significantly below that standard lately. New Orleans is underperforming the spread by 2.9 points per game over their last six outings. 

There’s been inconsistency from San Antonio’s wings, including Vassell and Keldon Johnson, and Wemby playing out of position didn’t help matters. With Wemby at center and time to gel, they’re starting to flash some defensive potential. Per Cleaning the Glass, San Antonio has had the fourth-best defense in the NBA over their last five games. I still can’t trust them overall to bring the total down that much, but it gives them a shot to be somewhat competitive in this one.

Sunday’s total opened at 236.5 and has seen a slight bump to 237.5. 

While the Pelicans are still ranked in the top half of the league on the defensive side of the ball, that’s being buoyed by opponent shooting luck. Only three other teams have had better fortune, as opponent 3-point shooting is not something that defenses have a consistent, measurable effect on. 

That’s further amplified because the Pels base scheme invites a high proportion of opponent 3s, so far that gamble has paid off, but there’s no schematic reason to believe it will do so indefinitely Even though the Spurs are not a good offensive team, I still think this Under is too tied to what I believe to be unsustainable defensive process by New Orleans.

Pelicans vs Spurs betting trend to know

The Over is 16-8 in the Spurs' last 24 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Spurs.

Pelicans vs Spurs game info

Pelicans vs Spurs latest injuries

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