Thursday's four-game NBA slate tips off with the Detroit Pistons visiting the Washington Wizards at 7:00 p.m. ET and ends with the Charlotte Hornets facing the Phoenix Suns at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all four matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket prices.
The Phoenix Suns are the biggest favorites at 68%, while the Toronto Raptors are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 21%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page for Thursday, Nov. 12.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 12
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Pistons
76ers
Timberwolves
HornetsPercentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 12
Pistons vs. Wizards: 
Wizards
It's the second night of a back-to-back, which does give me some concern about the Washington Wizards' injury report, particularly after seeing Anthony Davis return from injury. He's the focal point of why I believe there's value in the Wizards at 23%.
At the end of the day, this comes down to the probability we're being offered.
Getting the Wizards at 23% on their home floor, with a long, athletic frontcourt going up against a Detroit Pistons team missing Jalen Duren, is a price I'm more than willing to take.
Raptors vs. 76ers: 
Raptors
The Philadelphia 76ers trading as 80% favorites is simply too high of a market price against the Toronto Raptors.
Even if I project Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes to miss this game, I still see value backing the Raptors at 21%.
Toronto is playing the second night of a back-to-back, but that could actually work in our favor if the Raptors sit Barnes and Quickley on the front end, giving both an opportunity to rest and return for this matchup against Philadelphia.
Obviously, getting one or both back would increase our edge, but the bottom line is that 21% offers value even if neither is available.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: 
Mavericks
At 35%, I really like the Dallas Mavericks, who I price closer to a 41% underdog against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
From a basketball perspective, this is an excellent matchup for Dallas based on its current roster construction and the scoring tendencies of its two primary offensive engines.
Rudy Gobert thrives in drop coverage and as a rim protector, but that defensive approach doesn't necessarily take away what Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg do best.
Both are comfortable operating in the mid-range, while Irving can also exploit drop coverage with his floaters and acrobatic finishes around the basket.
On the other end of the floor, Gobert isn't the type of center who can consistently exploit Dallas' lack of depth at the position with Dereck Lively sidelined.
Hornets vs. Suns: 
Suns
I love the Phoenix Suns here, as I price them closer to a 73% favorite against the Charlotte Hornets.
With Coby White and Grayson Allen expected to handle most of the backcourt minutes for Charlotte, this sets up as an excellent matchup for Devin Booker and Jalen Green, who should both be able to take advantage.
The Hornets simply don't have the point-of-attack defense to slow down Phoenix's perimeter creators. With so much of the Suns' offense flowing through Booker, he should be able to generate efficient looks for both himself and his teammates.
Charlotte also has Moussa Diabate listed as questionable after he missed Monday's matchup against Cleveland, which could create another problem for an already vulnerable defense.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Wizards
Mavericks
Raptors
Let's take a shot at hitting an absolute monster of a combo on Thursday by pairing all three of our underdogs together.
It's rare to have three teams with win probabilities below 35% on the same card, but all three offer a mathematical edge at their current prices.
Let's see if we can cash three green checkmarks and hit a massive 59.15x payout on Polymarket!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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