Wednesday's 10-game NBA slate tips off with the Cleveland Cavaliers visiting the New York Knicks at 7:00 p.m. ET and ends with the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Portland Trail Blazers at 10 p.m. ET.
Our NBA moneyline picks cover all 10 matchups in tipoff order, with probabilities based on Polymarket prices.
The San Antonio Spurs are the biggest favorites at 89%, while the Washington Wizards are the steepest underdogs we're backing at 38%.
Find more analysis and predictions on our NBA picks page for Wednesday, Nov. 11.
NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 11
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cavaliers Knicks |
64% |
|
|
 60% |
 Wizards Pacers |
38% |
 Nuggets Grizzlies |
60% |
 Lakers Bucks |
86% |
 Spurs Bulls |
89% |
 Nets Pelicans |
62% |
 Magic Jazz |
62% |
 Warriors Rockets |
62% |
 Thunder Trail Blazers |
44% |
RaptorsPercentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Nov. 11
Cavaliers vs Knicks: Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns' shooting ability is an ideal counter to Cleveland's twin-tower lineup of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. His ability to stretch the floor forces Cleveland's bigs away from the basket and opens up driving lanes for New York.
The Knicks also have two elite wing defenders in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, who can take turns guarding James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
And let's be honest: Harden hasn't looked good or been particularly effective, and the Cavaliers are starting to look like a declining team.
Celtics vs Raptors: Celtics
This one could get messy as the injury reports develop, potentially causing significant movement from our initial probabilities.
The Boston Celtics are playing the second night of a back-to-back, while the Toronto Raptors have ruled out Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley for multiple consecutive games.
With both Barnes and Quickley available, I price Boston as a 60% favorite.
However, I think it's more likely that one or both Toronto players sit than that Boston rules out key players. I'll stick with the Celtics at 60% for now.
Wizards vs Pacers: Wizards
With Tyrese Haliburton out, the Indiana Pacers are forced to rely more heavily on half-court sets to generate offense in a slower-paced game.
I watched their matchup against the Dallas Mavericks closely, and Indiana repeatedly struggled to get into the paint in the second half.
The Pacers had trouble getting into the paint, forcing defensive rotations, and creating quality looks.
Washington has the size to make that an even bigger problem, with Anthony Davis and Alex Sarr capable of protecting the paint and cutting off driving lanes.
At 38%, I like the Wizards on the moneyline.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies: Nuggets
The Nuggets' screening actions and use of Nikola Jokic as a perimeter hub should create significant matchup problems for Zach Edey.
The 7-foot-4 center will repeatedly have to step away from the basket and defend on the perimeter, taking him out of his comfort zone.
While Jokic's three-point shooting has dipped considerably this season, that doesn't mean Memphis can afford to leave him wide open in pick-and-pop actions with Jamal Murray.
I make Denver a slightly bigger favorite than the 60% currently available on the market.
Lakers vs Bucks: Lakers
The 86% price is high, but not high enough to scare me away. I actually see a solid edge on the Los Angeles Lakers, whom I price closer to a 92% chance of beating the Milwaukee Bucks.
Who exactly is Milwaukee putting on Luka Doncic on the perimeter? Rookie Brayden Burries or Tyler Herro? Give me the Lakers on the moneyline.
Spurs vs Bulls: Spurs
As with the Lakers trade, the Spurs carry a high 89% probability, but I still see value at that price. I make San Antonio closer to a 92% favorite.
The Bulls' offense is built around players who attack the rim and look to finish inside. Good luck with that approach when Victor Wembanyama protecting the paint.
Wembanyama creates major matchup problems for Chicago on both ends of the floor, which is why I project San Antonio as a 92% favorite.
Nets vs Pelicans: Pelicans
With Trey Murphy upgraded to probable, the Pelicans are the side I'm backing at 62%.
The edge was relatively small to begin with, so there was a risk that Murphy could be ruled out and erase the expected value of this position.
However, with Murphy now much more likely to play than sit, I'm comfortable taking the Pelicans at 62%.
Magic vs Jazz: Magic
The Magic are playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they're in too deep a hole to start resting players against a team they should beat. I expect Orlando to have everyone available for this one.
The inexperience of Darryn Peterson and Ace Bailey could be a problem against the physical, bruising play of Desmond Bane and Franz Wagner.
This is a matchup where Bane and Wagner should be able to thrive as the primary engines of Orlando's offense.
Warriors vs Rockets: Rockets
This is my favorite trade on the board. I price the Rockets closer to a 71% chance of winning, creating a sizable gap between my projection and the current market price.
The Warriors have won eight straight, but Houston has the defensive personnel to deploy Amen Thompson against the red-hot Stephen Curry. The Rockets can also exploit Golden State's undersized frontcourt by running their offense through Alperen Sengun.
I believe Houston is a legitimate contender and one of the top teams in the Western Conference, which is why I see such a significant discrepancy between my projection and the market.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers: Trail Blazers
It's an unusual scheduling spot, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers playing a back-to-back set against each other in the same building.
My opinion is unchanged from Tuesday's matchup, with the market offering a similar 44% probability.
A different price might change my position, but at 44%, I'm more than happy to back the Trail Blazers, who I believe should be trading closer to even money.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Wizards
Rockets
Trail Blazers
The Rockets and Trail Blazers are two of my favorite trades on Wednesday's board, so it was an easy decision to give them two of the three spots in this combo.
As for the Wizards, I see a sneaky underdog opportunity in their matchup.
Another factor in their favor: They aren't playing the second night of a back-to-back, so we should have a clearer injury picture without worrying as much about late scratches.
That's why Washington gets the nod as the third leg.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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