This season hasn’t been what Dallas or Denver expected so far, but one of these teams will end up above the .500 mark after this one. That’s not all that bad considering neither team has performed anywhere close to their potential.
This game will be played Thursday, January 7, at 10:00 p.m. ET at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado. Get our Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks and predictions, as two of the best playmakers in the world in Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic battle.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Trey Burke G (Out), Kristaps Porzingis F (Out).
Nuggets: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets.
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Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Nuggets were 1-4 before getting to face the Timberwolves twice in a row, and Denver was able to win both of those meetings. The Nuggets averaged 123.5 points per game in those contests, and they should be feeling pretty good about where they are offensively. Overall, that should be all that matters against the Mavericks, as tonight’s game will be all about which team does a better job on the offensive end of the floor.
Luka is normally the best player on the court whenever he is out there, but that might not be true with the way Jokic is playing this season. This year, the big man is averaging 24.1 points, 11.9 assists and 11.7 rebounds per game for Denver, and he is also shooting 47.1 percent from the outside. Those numbers are absolutely ridiculous, and now he faces a Dallas team that is without Kristaps Porzingis, who at least has the length to make things difficult on him.
Also, Jamal Murray has gotten himself into a groove over the last week or so, and he should be able to punish Tim Hardaway Jr. whenever the former Michigan man is on him. If that’s not enough, Michael Porter Jr. returns to the lineup for the Nuggets here. Porter Jr. is capable of putting up points in a hurry, so that’s only another element that Dallas must worry about.
On top of everything else, the Mavericks are 6-16 ATS when coming off a road win since the start of last season.
PREDICTION: Nuggets -3.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Nuggets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league, as only one team in basketball has a worse defensive rating than them right now. With Luka leading the opposition, this could end up being a very high-scoring affair. The Mavericks should be able to execute their offense at a high level in this game, but the same goes for the Nuggets. Dallas is a decent defensive team, but Denver is second in the league in offensive rating.
The Nuggets can score against anybody. In fact, six of Denver’s seven games this season have gone Over the total. Also, 17 of the last 23 games following a Nuggets output of over 120 points have gone Over the total over the last two seasons.
PREDICTION: Over 225.0 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Gary Harris hasn’t come close to matching his 2017-18 production. He averaged 17.5 points per game that season, shooting 48.5 percent from the floor and 39.6 percent from three. However, it’s worth noting that Harris is the healthiest he has been in a long time right now. And despite struggling to start the season, it’s only a matter of time before he gets it going.
Harris is shooting 12.0 percent from three on the year. No, that isn’t a typo. But he’s a 35.6 percent career three-point shooter, so the law of averages will come into play soon enough. Also, he plays 31.0 minutes per game, so whenever he does get hot, he’ll have plenty of chances to score. It doesn’t hurt that this should be a game where, generally, a lot of points will be scored.
PREDICTION: Gary Harris Over 8.5 points (-114)
Mavericks vs Nuggets Betting Card
- Nuggets -3.0 (-110)
- Over 225.0 (-110)
- Gary Harris Over 8.5 points (-114)
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