Thursday’s NBA schedule is a little bit of action with just five games on the board, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be had for basketball bettors.
Will the Ja Morant-less Grizzlies be able to score against the suddenly-stingy Cavaliers? Who will get off to a better start in the triple-double battle between Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic? And are sportsbooks missing the boat on CJ McCollum’s hot hand?
We dive into the basketball odds with our best free NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, January 7.
NBA Picks for Today
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies
After winning just 19 games in each of the first two seasons since LeBron James left for La La Land, the Cleveland Cavaliers are starting to show some promise. The Cavs are 4-4 to start thanks in large part to their tenacious defense and they’ll look to lock down the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies.
The Cavaliers rank third in defensive rating and are limiting opponents to just 105 points per game. But where the Cavs really excel is on the inside with the likes of Andre Drummond. Cleveland is allowing opponents to hit just 48 percent of their 2-point shots, which is the third-best mark in the NBA.
Things have been tough on the Grizz without Morant, averaging just 100.3 points per game in the four games since he got hurt. And while Memphis has looked elsewhere for scoring, it hasn’t meant much of an uptick for center Jonas Valanciunas, which means his point total of 15.5 might be a little high for this game.
While that number has been what the Grizzlies big man has averaged in Morant’s absence, that is mostly due to one 20-point outburst against the Celtics. In fact, that's only time all season JV went above this number. Going against the interior presence of the Cavs should keep him from getting there a second time.
PREDICTION: Jonas Valanciunas Under 15.5 Points (-110)
Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets
It’s been a bit of a slow start to the season for both the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets. The two Western Conference teams are both sitting at 3-4, but have aspirations of extended playoff runs, so they'll be looking to build some momentum when they meet up in the Mile High City on Thursday night.
Dallas has traded wins and losses over their last five games and are coming off a 113-100 win over the Houston Rockets. The Mavs' biggest problem is that Luka Doncic is getting very little support from his teammates. It’s not shocking Doncic leads the teams in points, rebounds and assists, but the margins by which he is are. However, Dallas does tend to show up for the first half of games, where they average 57.6 points per contest.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, have struggled more on the defensive end, but will be looking for their first three-game winning streak of the season after completing a two-game mini sweep of the Timberwolves. While the offense is flowing fine through Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets allow 116 points per game and rank 27th in defensive rating.
In the first half of games, the Nugs average 59, and the 61.7 first half points they allow ranks 27th in the NBA. Look for the opening half of this one to be high-scoring.
PREDICTION: Over 113.5 First Half Total (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Portland Trail Blazers
Sportsbooks continue to be a little unsure of the Portland Trail Blazers' scoring situation. Yes, Damian Lillard is the slightly more elite scorer compared to the other half of his dynamic duo, CJ McCollum, but McCollum is arguably the better shooter, and without a doubt has the hotter hand at the moment.
Despite that hot hand, the Blazers have dropped three of their last four ball games and will look to turn things around when they welcome the Timberwolves to town on Thursday.
Portland will have a great spot, as Minnesota is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA through the early part of the season. The T-wolves are giving up 120.0 points per game on 50.1 percent shooting and rank dead-last in defensive rating, which means both Dame and McCollum should cook in this matchup.
But McCollum is the better value when it comes to point totals. Lillard’s is set at 28.5, despite averaging 26 points per game this season, while McCollum’s is on the board at 24.5. McCollum leads the team in scoring at 27.7 points per game, is shooting 45.3 percent from 3-point range, and has gone Over this number in five of his last six games, including the last four in a row. Until books adjust, bet CJ to keep taking down these numbers.
PREDICTION: CJ McCollum Over 24.5 Points (-110)
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Top NBA Consensus for Today
Want to know who today's biggest NBA betting and consensus bets are right now? Check out our top NBA consensus picks.
Yesterday's picks: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
Season record to date: 20-17-1 (+2.30 units)
NBA Betting Card for January 7
- Jonas Valanciunas Under 15.5 Points (-110)
- DAL-DEN Over 113.5 First Half Total (-110)
- CJ McCollum Over 24.5 Points (-110)
NBA Parlays
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