It's a busy Friday night of basketball with 11 games on the NBA betting slate, including a battle between the New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks.
The Knicks are currently in sixth place in the Eastern Conference while the Mavs are in seventh place in the West and both teams will no doubt be looking to end the season with a Top-6 finish and avoid the play-in tournament.
Here are our best free NBA picks and predictions for the Knicks vs. Mavericks on Friday, April 16, with tipoff at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Knicks vs Mavericks odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDallas hit FanDuel's odds board as a 5-point favorite Thursday evening and stretched to -7 early this evening, before dialing down a notch to -6.5, where the line rests at 7 p.m. ET. Point-spread betting splits on this clash are interesting, for certain, with 65 percent of tickets on the Knicks and 62 percent of money on the Mavericks. The total moved from 210.5 to 211.5 to 211, with 82 percent of tickets and money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameKnicks at Mavericks betting preview
Injuries
Knicks: Nerlens Noel C (Questionable), Mitchell Robinson C (Out).
Mavericks: Tyrell Terry G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Knicks are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Mavericks.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Mavericks are coming off a 114-113 win against the Grizzlies where an absurd buzzer-beating three-pointer from Luka Doncic helped Dallas avoid a three-game losing streak.
Doncic has carried Dallas all season with 28.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game. But despite his heroics, the Mavs are a middling 10th in the league in offensive rating while ranking 17th in defensive rating.
The Knicks have been one of the league's biggest surprises this season, and despite ranking 22nd in offensive rating, they are two games above .500 thanks to some terrific defensive play. New York is third in the NBA in defensive rating and holds opponents to a league-best field goal percentage of 44.2.
The Knicks are riding a four-game winning streak and are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games. With how well they've been playing recently and their tough defensive play, I'm surprised that they're being spotted 5.5 points against an inconsistent Mavs squad.
This is especially true when you consider that Dallas is just 6-11 ATS as a home favorite this season, while the Knicks are 13-7 ATS as an underdog on the road. Even with the Knicks' last ATS loss coming in a 99-86 defeat against the Mavs two weeks ago, we have to take the Knicks at this number.
PREDICTION: New York +5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
With an offense led by Doncic and former Knicks unicorn Kristaps Porzingis, you'd probably expect Dallas to fill up the bucket. However, the Mavs are a modest 19th in the league in scoring with 111.4 points per game.
The Knicks haven't exactly been shooting lights out either, even with forward Julius Randle (23.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game) emerging as a star. New York is 28th in the league in scoring with 105.6 ppg.
That said, the Knicks have the league's best scoring defense, holding opponents to just 104.2 ppg, and surprisingly the Mavs aren't too far behind them in eighth place at 109.7 ppg.
Both of these teams also play at a very slow tempo with Dallas 26th in the league in pace and New York 30th. With the Mavs 10-1 to the Under in their last 11 games at home, back the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 211 (-110)
Team Total Pick
You've probably noticed a common theme with how we're leaning with our picks in this matchup, but oddsmakers don't seem to trust the Knicks, so we're going to keep backing their strong defensive play until it stops paying off.
The Mavs' team total for tonight is set at 108.5 and the Knicks have held foes to 106 points or fewer in 10 of their last 12 games. The only two opponents that scored more than 106 points against New York in that span were the Grizzlies in overtime and the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Brooklyn Nets.
Dallas averages 109.7 ppg at home and was held to 99 points when these teams met up on April 2. With the Knicks allowing just 103.6 ppg in away contests take the Under on the Mavs team total.
PREDICTION: Dallas Team Total Under 108.5 (-110)
Knicks vs Mavericks betting card
- New York +5.5 (-110)
- Under 211 (-110)
- Dallas Team Total Under 108.5 (-110)
Picks made on 04/16/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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