Yaxel Lendeborg has moved into the favorite's spot in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds following news on Nov. 12, 2026, that Stephen Curry will miss several weeks with an abdominal injury.
Lendeborg and Cameron Boozer had been trading places as the market favorite, with both hovering around 30%. However, the expectation that Lendeborg will take on an expanded role for an extended stretch has sparked a significant market reaction in the NBA odds.
If you're thinking about trading Yaxel Lendeborg as NBA Rookie of the Year, here's how to approach it.
NBA Rookie of the Year odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Yaxel Lendeborg |
51% |
 Cameron Boozer |
20% |
 Darius Acuff Jr. |
19% |
 Darryn Peterson |
7% |
 AJ Dybantsa |
6% |
 Caleb Wilson |
4% |
 Aday Mara |
2% |
Odds as of Nov. 12. Percentages courtesy of Polymarket.
Odds last updated on Nov. 12. Odds from Polymarket. Use our Polymarket promo code (COVERS) for a $25 trading bonus when you deposit at least $10 as a new user.
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How we got here
- Yaxel Lendeborg was selected 11th overall by the Golden State Warriors after playing at the University of Michigan
- He made an immediate impact with the Warriors and has established himself as the team's second-best player
- Stephen Curry's abdominal injury, which is expected to sideline him for multiple weeks, has pushed Lendeborg's Rookie of the Year probability above 50%
Why Lendeborg is the favorite
- Production: Lendeborg has posted a 20.8 PER, surpassing both Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff Jr.
- Team success: The Warriors are firmly positioned near the top of the Western Conference standings
- Role security: With Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler sidelined, there was plenty of usage available, and Lendeborg did an excellent job taking advantage of the opportunity
The competition is the catch
- Cameron Boozer (Grizzlies): Has carved out an established role while making meaningful contributions to winning basketball
- Darius Acuff Jr. (Kings): While the individual numbers are impressive, they risk feeling like empty calories without the team success to back them up
- AJ Dybantsa (Wizards): Could quickly re-enter the race if either Trae Young or Anthony Davis suffers an injury
How to trade on Yaxel Lendeborg ROY odds
1. Don't buy the surge following the news. I don't view this market as having a runaway favorite, and a 51% probability for Lendeborg feels too high given the level of competition. It's fair to question whether his efficiency will suffer without Curry's offensive gravity, while the Warriors' team success, which is an important part of his narrative, could also take a hit during Curry's absence.
2. Who has seen their market value decline as Lendeborg surges. Boozer's probability has fallen to just 20%, making him a more interesting player to monitor. I'd rather look for an opportunity to buy the dip on Boozer than chase the surge on Lendeborg. Darryn Peterson is another name worth watching, particularly with the Jazz dealing with injuries to key players. He's trading at just 7%, and with so much market attention focused on Lendeborg, Peterson could be an intriguing alternative.
3. You don't have to hold to the end. When trading on prediction markets, it's important to remember that you don't have to hold a position until the market settles. You can sell at any point if the probability moves in your favor. For example, if you buy Boozer at 20% and his market probability climbs to 30%, you can sell your position and lock in a profit without needing him to win Rookie of the Year.
4. Know what could go wrong. Injuries are always a major consideration when trading award markets, but it's worth noting that the NBA Rookie of the Year award is exempt from the league's 65-game minimum requirement.
Ready to trade the NBA Rookie of the Year market? Use promo code 'COVERS' (mobile app only) at Polymarket for a $25 trading bonus after a $10 deposit.
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