Western Conference foes face off at Target Center on Thursday, Nov. 12 as Ayo Dosunmu and the Minnesota Timberwolves host Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas is on a heater, and my Mavericks vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks expect the Mavs to extend their current win streak and pull off an upset as road underdogs tonight.
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction: Mavericks moneyline
Given the Dallas Mavericks’ recent form, I price this line closer to 45%, making it a value at 37%.
The Mavs have won six of their last eight games overall, and six of their last seven with both Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving available. Over that span, Dallas has earned impressive wins over the Thunder and Rockets, while suffering a competitive one-point loss at San Antonio.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Mavericks have posted nearly identical Offensive, Defensive, and Net Ratings over their last seven games, setting the stage for a close contest.
Stars make the difference in crunch time. With Anthony Edwards still sidelined for Minnesota, I trust Flagg and Irving to lead Dallas to victory.
COVERS INTEL: Dallas ranks fifth in percentage of points on fast breaks (14.5%) and percentage of PITP (42.6%). The Mavericks can take advantage of a Minnesota team that allows the 10th-most fast-break points (14.9) and seventh-most PITP (50).
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Timberwolves combo
Flagg is averaging a career-best 25.9 ppg, and he’s reached 25+ points in six of 10 appearances, including each of his last two games.
Flagg is one of six players averaging at least 25 points on 50% shooting, and his 30.1 Usage Rate leads his team and ranks 15th in the NBA. Trade to 25.5.
Irving has cleared this line in three of four road games while averaging 30 PRA. Irving’s points prop is set at 24.5, but he’s scored 25+ only three times and is averaging 22.9 ppg, his lowest mark in 11 years. However, the veteran is posting 8.5 assists + rebounds on the road, and I like his chances of clearing the combo line more than the scoring line thanks to his all-around contributions.
I’ll trade this one to 30.5.
Mavericks vs Timberwolves combo
- Mavericks moneyline
- Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points
- Kyrie Irving Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
Mavericks vs Timberwolves player props
Mavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 assists
Play to 58%.
Flagg ranks sixth in assists per game among forwards, averaging 6.9. He ranks fifth at his position in Assist Percentage at 33.8%, and third in potential assists at 12.2.
He's cleared this line in eight of 10 games, including each of his last three, and Dallas is undefeated this season when he reaches that mark.
Flagg is the Mavs’ clear go-to playmaker and floor general, and he’ll reach 6+ assists tonight as Dallas gets the win on the road.
Timberwolves player prop: Ayo Dosunmu Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists
Ayo Dosunmu has started seven straight games with Anthony Edwards sidelined, but he’s been at his best across his last five. In that span, he averaged 23.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, clearing 30 PRA four times while leading the Wolves in PRA and minutes (35.7).
Dosunmu was productive last season in the same situation, averaging 29.4 PRA across seven games without Edwards, and clearing 30 PRA four times. I’m counting on another strong performance as Dosunmu picks up the slack for the shorthanded Wolves. Trade to 31.5.
- Top picks: 5-12, -7.24 units
- Combos: 0-17, -17.00 units
- Props: 13-19, -6.42 units
Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (51%) | Timberwolves -5.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Mavericks 35% | Timberwolves 66%
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (50%) | Under 227.5 (51%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Mavericks vs Timberwolves trend
The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Mavericks vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBA TV |
Mavericks vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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