The Portland Trail Blazers are in a real state of despair at the moment, entering play on Tuesday the losers of nine in a row. Now, the task at hand is against a Miami Heat team that's won four in a row.
With Jimmy Butler returning from his one-game suspension, is there any hope of a turnaround for Portland at home?
Heat vs Trail Blazers odds
Heat vs Trail Blazers predictions
The Miami Heat have done a great job winning away from home, and that was on full display Monday night when they took out the Kings in Sacramento down several players due to injury and suspension.
With that being said, they’re just 4-5-1 against the spread as road favorites and will be laying seven points in Portland on the second night of a back-to-back.
It’s hard to say this is a game the Portland Trail Blazers can compete in, however. They’ve taken some horrible efficiency numbers and made them even worse in February, heading five points backward per 100 possessions and distributing their regression rather evenly between the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Portland is just 10-12 ATS as home underdogs and will be playing here without Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson on top of Shaedon Sharpe and Robert Williams, who have been out long-term.
Miami may have a losing record against the spread in the second half of a back-to-back this season, but it will have the benefit of running a well-rested Jimmy Butler out there after he missed Monday’s win due to suspension.
With that said, the Trail Blazers have been hellbent on scoring at the rim this season and that’s one huge area of weakness for the Heat, even with improving defensive numbers in recent weeks.
The Over is 9-7 in games where the Trail Blazers enter with a rest advantage, and despite some losses, I do think they can continue to get to the rim against the Heat and score the ball.
On the flip side, Miami’s shooting has gotten even better on the road this season and its offense should be flying with a fresh Butler against a porous Portland defense.
My best bet: Over 212.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Heat vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay
Over 212.5
Jimmy Butler 20+ points
Deandre Ayton Over 16.5 points
With a total so low, we’re afforded some discounted rates on guys who have been scoring the ball well of late. I think this game goes Over the total due to the poor defense we’ve seen from Portland, but it’s obvious the weakness of both defenses lies inside with poor numbers defending the rim this season.
I’ll start with Butler to go get 20 points, something he’s done in seven of his last eight games. Erik Spoelstra should run his lead man out there for as many minutes as he can handle with this team quite fatigued, and against a Trail Blazers team that has allowed nearly 70% shooting within four feet and 47% in the mid-range this month, Jimmy could feast.
I also think Deandre Ayton should be plenty capable of scoring on a Heat frontcourt that's allowed 68.8% shooting at the rim in February.
He’s gone Over this number in five of his last six games and with options limited on offense — and potentially some more putbacks available due to the poor nature of this Portland offense — I think he should certainly be able to fill up the scoring column tonight.
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Heat vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis
The money just keeps coming in on the Heat. They opened up as 5.5-point favorites before shooting up to -6.5 and then -7, and after a slight move towards Portland, we're all the way up to Heat -7.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
It would seem just about everyone betting this spread is aligned with 68% of the tickets and 66% of the cash coming in on this market over at DraftKings on Miami to cover.
The total, meanwhile, has been a pretty wild ride. The number opened up at 215 and after some initial movement towards the Under and then the Over, we’ve seen this steadily plummet down to 212 at one point, and now 212.5.
It’s worth noting that some big money is on the Under, with 34% of tickets and a stronger 47% of the handle on a low-scoring game over at DraftKings.
Heat vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know
The Trail Blazers have cashed the first-half Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.80 units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Trail Blazers.
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Heat vs Trail Blazers game info
| Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ROOT SPORTS, Bally Sports Sun |
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