As the series shifts back to Minnesota, the Timberwolves return home looking to force a Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs, with our NBA player prop projections identifying several strong value spots on the board for tonight's Game 6.
By breaking down the data and comparing it to the latest market lines, we’ve uncovered where the strongest betting edges lie for this pivotal matchup.
These Spurs vs. Timberwolves predictions are driven by numbers instead of guesswork.
If you’re building your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Friday, May 15.
Spurs vs Timberwolves computer picks for Game 6
 Spurs |
 Timberwolves |
|---|---|
| Fox o17.5 points -115 |
Edwards o26.5 points -115 |
| Champagnie o1.5 3-pointers -190 |
Gobert o8.5 rebounds -120 |
| Castle o6.5 assists -110 |
Dosunmu o1.5 3-pointers -120 |
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Spurs Game 6 computer picks
De'Aaron Fox Over 17.5 points (-115)
Projection: 20.02 points
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ up-tempo pace — eighth-fastest over the last five games — should create more scoring chances for the San Antonio Spurs, especially De’Aaron Fox, who’s cleared this points line in back-to-back games.
With San Antonio on the brink of the Western Conference Finals, expect Fox to stay aggressive and surpass this number again.
Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 3-pointers (-190)
Projection: 2.20 3-pointers
Julian Champagnie has been lights-out from beyond the arc in this series against Minnesota and will look to stay hot as the Spurs push to advance.
He’s cleared this three-point prop in every playoff game but one, and he remains a dependable threat to knock down multiple shots from deep once again.
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Stephon Castle Over 6.5 assists (-110)
Projection: 6.75 assists
Stephon Castle has been a steady playmaker, and his 12-assist outing in Game 3 showed just how high his ceiling is as a facilitator.
With the stakes elevated on the road, expect Castle to embrace the moment, keep the ball moving, and continue setting up quality looks for San Antonio.
Timberwolves Game 6 computer picks
Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points (-115)
Projection: 26.92 points
At home this season, the Spurs have struggled to contain opposing starting shooting guards, allowing them to shoot 54.7% from the field — the second-highest mark in the league. That sets up a favorable spot for Anthony Edwards, who’s never one to shy away from a challenge.
Even while dealing with an injury, Edwards has found another gear offensively over the last three games. With Minnesota fighting to keep its season alive, expect him to leave it all on the floor and bring the intensity needed to match the moment.
Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 rebounds (-120)
Projection: 11.06 rebounds
The Spurs kept Rudy Gobert quiet on the glass in Game 5, limiting him to just five rebounds, and Minnesota won’t survive another outing like that if they want to extend the series.
Gobert has cleared this rebounds line in all but two games this series, and the Timberwolves will need him to bounce back in a big way to control the boards and generate crucial second-chance opportunities.
Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 3-pointers (-120)
Projection: 1.87 3-pointers
At home this season, opposing starting point guards have shot 48.4% from three against the Spurs — the highest mark in the league — making this a strong matchup spot for Ayo Dosunmu, who has been quieter than he was in Minnesota’s first-round series against Denver.
Dosunmu has only cleared this prop once in this series, but if there’s a time for him to heat up from deep, this is it.
How to watch Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 6
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Friday, May 15, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime |
Not intended for use in MA.
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