The Miami Heat's lengthy road trip is nearly over but first: a trip to Staples Center to take on the champions.
After snapping a three-game losing streak against the Kings on Thursday, Miami will head to L.A. for a Finals rematch against the Lakers in the highlight of today's NBA betting matchups.
Can the Heat make it two straight wins—and find some revenge against the Lakers? Find out in our NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Lakers on Saturday, February 20, with tipoff scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Goran Dragic PG (Out), Avery Bradley SG (Out).
Lakers: Dennis Schroder PG (Questionable), Anthony Davis (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with a winning straight up record. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Lakers.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM pegged Los Angeles 3.5-point chalk to open and spent time at -3 and -4, but 15 minutes before tipoff, the Lakers are back at the opener of -3.5. "Tickets are roughly 3/1 in favor of the Lakers, money 2.5/1 on the Lakers," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said. The total dropped from 213 to 208, mostly off news of who is/isn't playing. "That move has nothing to do with money, which is 4/1 on the Over, and ticket count is 5/1 on the Over," Shelton said.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Though the Lakers have been cruising all season long behind the efforts of LeBron James, now in his eighteenth season, they have been a middling ATS team on the season at 14-16. However, that record has not been helped by a handful of overtime contests against mediocre teams, including the Thunder twice and the Pistons, over the last few weeks.
Miami, too, has been underwhelming against the spread in 2021 at just 10-18-1. Its ATS record, however, is more understandable as the Heat sit at 12-17 SU and were without Jimmy Butler for three weeks. Prior to their recent three-game losing streak, they had reeled off four wins in a row and appear to be relocating their identity as a gritty team capable of grinding out games against anyone, with two-way studs in Butler and Bam Adebayo surrounded by shooters.
The Heat can make a game out of what is a really tough matchup, especially with Anthony Davis missing for the Lakers. However, it's not enough to go against the champions at home with a modest line.
PREDICTION: Lakers -3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Both of these teams take pride in their defense and have both high-level individual defenders, as well as strong five-man units. On the year, both teams are Top 10 in defensive rating, with the Lakers atop the league and the Heat 10th. Both teams are also in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game—the Lakers at 103.2 (16th) and the Heat at 102.7 (19th).
The Lakers, 11-19 O/U on the season, achieved the near-impossible on Thursday and dragged the high-flying Nets Under their total of 230.5. While Los Angeles will certainly miss Davis on the defensive end, his vacated production on offense should continue to cancel out any impact felt in L.A.'s O/U trend.
Though the total is relatively low at 212.5, we like last year's finalists to go Under.
PREDICTION: Under 212.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Adebayo was one of the breakout stars of the 2019-20 season, especially in the Bubble, and will have a big platform on Saturday night. With Davis missing, Adebayo, one of the league's best defensive bigs, will have a massive assignment vacated. Instead of defending a 7-footer with three-level scoring ability and point guard handles, he will be defending screen-and-roll aficionado Montrezl Harrell and pocket quarterback Marc Gasol.
On the other end will be a similarly enjoyable mismatch for the Heat's big man. Harrell is a poor defender and Gasol simply cannot hang with Adebayo at this stage of his career. As a result, Adebayo will be able to completely dominate the game, whether it's as a passer, scorer, or off the glass. Bam is quietly averaging 19.8/9.3/5.5 on the year, but he will be able to exceed his standard production – and a seemingly low 31.5 total tonight – without Davis there to matchup with him.
PREDICTION: Bam Adebayo Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
Heat vs Lakers betting card
- Lakers -3 (-110)
- Under 212.5 (-110)
- Bam Adebayo Over X Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120)
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