The Charlotte Hornets may be the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they sure aren't playing like it.
Charlotte has been one of the better sides since the All-Star break, finishing the home stretch of the regular season with an 18-9 record. That span included splitting two meetings with the Miami Heat, who the Hornets host in the Play-In Tournament.
Point guard LaMelo Ball dished out a ton of dimes in his most recent run-in with Miami, and our Heat vs. Hornets predictions see Ball at the wheel of that offense tonight.
My NBA picks love LaMelo to top his assist prop on April 14.
- UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.
Heat vs Hornets prediction
Who will win Heat vs Hornets?
Hornets: While the Hornets climbed the Eastern Conference standings, the Heat were going in the opposite direction. Miami has five wins in its last 15 games. The Heat have issues on defense and now face a Hornets attack that was the second-best offense in the back half of the season. Charlotte is 15-6 SU (14-7 ATS) as a home favorite this season.
Heat vs Hornets best bet: LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists (-120)
LaMelo Ball is at the center of the Charlotte Hornets’ surge. The polarizing point guard watched his playmaking prowess rise in the home stretch, dishing out more than seven assists per game.
His brightest passing performance was 13 assists in a 136-106 blowout of the Miami Heat on March 17.
Since then, Ball has recorded at least eight dimes in eight of 14 games and did so against defenses much stiffer than Miami. Charlotte took on the likes of Detroit, Boston (twice), New York (twice), Minnesota, and Phoenix — all Top 10 in defensive rating.
The Heat, on the other hand, are horrendous on D. Miami was 28th in defensive rating in the final 15 games while allowing 127.5 points against in that stretch. Foes racked up an average of 30 assists per contest — fifth most.
Charlotte cracked open the Heat’s zone defense like a piñata in that last meeting, thriving with off-ball movement and dribble-kick passing to spot-up shooters. Ball is excellent at creating opportunities from collapsing the defense as well as working out of guard-on-guard screen action.
Since scorching the Heat in mid-March, Ball has generated an average of 12 potential assists per game. In his three head-to-head battles with Miami, that advanced measurement leaps to 14.3 potential dimes for outputs of five, nine, and 13 assists.
Player projections for Tuesday’s tilt sit at 8+ assists from Ball.
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Heat vs Hornets same-game parlay
The Hornets are excellent at home when catching points and come into the Play-In Tournament producing some of the best two-way basketball, boasting a net rating of +11.3 over the final 15 games.
Kon Knueppel gets his first taste of postseason play. The sharp-shooting rookie is the main beneficiary of Ball's playmaking and torched the Heat this season, scoring 19, 22, 27, and 30 points in four matchups. He was 18 for 40 from beyond the 3-point arc in those games.
Heat vs Hornets SGP
- Hornets moneyline
- LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists
- Kon Knueppel Over 17.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Ball's in your Court
LaMelo’s projections call for as many as 24 points, eight assists, and six rebounds. He cashed this same stat line when Charlotte smoked Miami back on March 17.
Heat vs Hornets SGP
- Hornets -5.5
- LaMelo Ball Over 22.5 points
- LaMelo Ball Over 7.5 assists
- LaMelo Ball Over 5.5 rebounds
Heat vs Hornets odds
- Spread: Heat +5.5 | Hornets -5.5
- Moneyline: Heat +185 | Hornets -225
- Over/Under: Over 228 | Under 228
Heat vs Hornets betting trend to know
The Hornets are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS (69%) when laying more than three points as a home favorite this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hornets.
How to watch Heat vs Hornets
| Location | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Tuesday, April 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Heat vs Hornets latest injuries
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