Heat vs Clippers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Leonard Could Return Tonight

The Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Clippers are teams with little in common stylistically. The Heat pride themselves on doing more with less, while the Clippers are figuring out the flow with a rotation stocked with four future Hall of Famers.

Unfortunately, this game is marred by a marquee absence as Jimmy Butler has already been ruled out. Kawhi Leonard is officially questionable, but that same designation has seen him miss four straight games. Despite Leonard's status, LA is favored by almost eight points in the NBA odds.

My NBA picks and predictions Heat vs. Clippers think there’s reason to believe that Leonard will make his return on Monday, January 1, and consequently lead Los Angeles to a dominant home win.

Heat vs Clippers odds

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Heat vs Clippers predictions

While Kawhi Leonard is officially questionable on Monday, I am convinced that he’s going to play. There are two reasons for that. 

First, and most importantly, Los Angeles Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters that Kawhi was an unrestricted participant in Sunday's practice. In the past with Leonard, while that was a good indicator, it didn’t necessarily mean that he would suit up.

Which brings me to the second reason: this injury is nothing like the ones that have held Kawhi out in the past. Kawhi has been managing a degenerative knee issue for half a decade now, but this season he is finally pain-free. The proof of the change has been that before this four-game absence, Kawhi had played in every game, including back-to-backs. 

Leonard's injury this time is a hip contusion. There’s no reason to believe that should be at risk of re-injury, nor is it related to previous injuries that could flare up after practice. 

Further, whatever he might say publicly, I imagine Kawhi is quite keen to hit the 65 games played minimum requirement of the NBA’s new Player Participation Policy. If he does, he’s a lock to make All-NBA this year again, which matters in a contract year.

Kawhi’s presence would make all the difference in this game. With Jimmy Butler unavailable, Kawhi is the exact kind of player that the Miami Heat have no answer for. The Heat are masters of defending the pick and roll but are weaker against isolation scorers like Leonard.

Lineups with Kevin Love, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jovic, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. all present opposing offenses with multiple weak points to attack. While not all of those players are outright bad defenders, they’re certainly not additive, leaving Bam Adebayo too many holes to plug, spots to cover, and unable to reasonably react in time on drives. 

Bam is a master of switching screens and hanging with perimeter players, but the Clippers can simply hunt mismatches and avoid bringing him into the action with a screen at all.

While I can’t be certain of Kawhi’s status, the Clippers also have other strong isolation scorers in James Harden and Paul George as well. I think L.A. will be able to pick at the Heat’s weak links enough to secure a comfortable win on Monday.

My best bet: Clippers -7 (-110 at bet365)

Heat vs Clippers same-game parlay

Clippers -7

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 16.5 points

Tyler Herro Under 3.5 made threes

+424 at FanDuel

Jaquez has been a difference-maker for the Heat this season. Despite the often-given logic that college players are better prepared for pro ball, rarely do you see a four-year college player like Jaquez actually come into the NBA ready to help a team win right away. 

Jaquez has been a revelation, a perfect Heat-type player who grinds on defense, is a great connective passer, and outworks opponents around the rim. In many ways, he functions as a Butler-lite when Butler is out — as he is today — soaking up possessions and scoring effectively without plays being called for him. With Butler out, I expect Jaquez to shoulder more of the scoring load.

For the last leg, I expect Herro to not find as much success from outside. The Clippers have a lot of wings and guards who are comfortable switching, but their rim protection is some of the NBA’s worst among good teams. The path of least resistance for Miami and Herro will come inside against L.A., so I’m shorting his 3-point prop.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Clippers opened as -5.5-point favorites for Monday’s tilt, and that’s seen movement to as high as -7.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Clippers have been off since Friday, while the Heat are coming off a loss to the Utah Jazz on Saturday. That’s significant because the Clippers are 5-2 against the spread with a rest advantage this season.

The total for the New Year's Day matchup between the Heat and the Clippers opened at 228.5, which has since dropped to 227.5 at some sportsbooks.

Miami’s defense has struggled against certain kinds of pressures, but overall they’ve still been strong on that end of late. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Heat have had the fourth-best defense over the last two weeks, allowing just 112.1 per 100 possessions. 

That said, the Jazz just dominated the Heat, scoring 60 points in the paint with much weaker offensive talent than L.A. I would lean toward the Over.

Heat vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Clippers are 5-2 ATS with a rest advantage this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Clippers.

Heat vs Clippers game info

Heat vs Clippers latest injuries

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