After sliding to seventh in the East and losing standout Jaylen Brown for the rest of the season, the Boston Celtics have to look on the bright side.
Like the fact they allowed the Miami Heat to shoot 57 percent from the floor last time but only lost by only six on Sunday.
The Celtics host the Heat again in an important Eastern Conference set, pegged as short NBA betting underdogs at home to a surging Miami squad that’s won five of its last six games (4-1-1 ATS).
Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Celtics on May 11.
Heat vs Celtics game info
• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA.
• Date: Tuesday, May 11, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Heat vs Celtics odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMiami opened as a 1.5-point favorite at TwinSpires, spent some time at -2 and returned to -1.5, where the line sits at 4 p.m. ET. The Heat are attracting 73 percent of spread tickets and 68 percent of spread money. The total moved from 222.5 to 225, with 59 percent of tickets/66 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameHeat at Celtics betting preview
Injuries
Heat: Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Celtics: Jaylen Brown F (Out), Robert Williams C (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a home underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Heat landed a body blow on the Celtics Sunday, taking a 130-124 road victory that lifted Miami to sixth in the East and knocked Boston to seventh, flirting with the play-in tournament in the home stretch of the schedule.
The Celtics allowed the Heat to get comfortable early on, putting Boston behind 36-23 in the opening 12 minutes and Miami held a 26-point lead at the halftime break. The Celtics showed some grit, battling back in the final two quarters (outscoring Miami by 20), giving them some momentum entering what has become a do-or-die game Tuesday.
Miami’s success has been fueled by a softer schedule in recent weeks. The Heat have scored wins against Minnesota, Charlotte, Cleveland, San Antonio and Chicago—a stretch that includes (maybe) two playoff teams. Boston is a much tougher challenge—when it isn’t spotting its opponents 26 points at half.
Offensively, the Celtics didn’t play poorly on Sunday, well… after missing seven of their first eight 3-point attempts. They shot over 54 percent for the game, including 58.5 percent in the final two quarters. Boston’s stars shone in the loss as well, with Jayson Tatum scoring 29, Kemba Walker putting up 18, and Marcus Smart posting 16 points along with 30 from forward Evan Fournier.
Things have been bleak for Boston bettors in recent weeks, with the team going just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine games. But we’re buying into the final 24 minutes of Sunday’s showing and the C’s dire need to stop the bleeding. The Celtics are also a tough out at home when getting the points, going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as home pups.
PREDICTION: Boston +2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Unlike Sunday’s free-wheeling offensive bonanza, Tuesday’s Game 2 between the Heat and Celtics will have a playoff-like atmosphere. And that means defense.
A fresh role of game tape should help Brad Stevens tighten the bolts against the Miami offense, which won’t shoot 57 percent from the field again. The Celtics will be much more calculated with their approach, staying away from erratic 3-balls that led to long rebounds and transition points for the Heat.
Miami is one of the league’s defensive elite, sitting seventh in the NBA’s defensive rating metric and possessing two shutdown on-the-ball defenders in Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The Heat give up just 106.7 per road game on the season—third lowest in the land.
Sunday’s game topped the 222-point total with a pace rating of 100.5, which is much faster than the tempo for both the Heat and Celtics. Miami owns one of the most plodding offensive attacks in the Association (97.09) while Boston runs the 11th slowest offensive tempo (98.94).
PREDICTION: Under 222.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Jayson Tatum needs to do it all for Boston to avoid sinking any further in the playoff picture, including making his teammates look good.
Tatum had six assists in Sunday’s loss to the Heat and will draw the ire of Butler and Adebayo again tonight, which makes scoring buckets a challenge. Luckily, he has capable scorers around him who will make the most of those touches from Tatum.
Tatum, who averages 4.4 assists per game, has dished out five or more dimes in six of his last 10 efforts and had five helpers in a 107-105 win over Miami back in January.
PREDICTION: Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 assists (-128)
Heat vs Celtics betting card
- Boston +2 (-110)
- Under 222.5 (-110)
- Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 assists (-128)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s NBA Heat vs. Celtics picks, you could win $54.92 on a $10 bet?
Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on the NBA?
You can bet on NBA odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NBA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of NBA prop odds. Head over to our best sportsbooks for NBA betting in your area.
