The Golden State Warriors continue to battle in a compelling dogfight for play-in seeding that's taking them down to the season's final days (just as Adam Silver drew it up).
Tonight's opponent, the Phoenix Suns, is in their own battle for playoff slots, still with a chance to claim homecourt advantage throughout the postseason.
With both teams having plenty to play for, tonight's game should make for a competitive NBA betting matchup. Find out who has the edge with our free Suns vs. Warriors picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 11.
Suns vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonAs of 7 p.m. ET, Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite at TwinSpires, down a tick from the -5 opener. The Suns are netting 55 percent of spread tickets, while the Warriors are attracting 66 percent of spread money. The total is up a point to 231.5, though it's two-way action, with 58 percent of tickets on the Over and 59 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Suns at Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Suns: Cam Johnson SF (Out).
Warriors: Kelly Oubre Jr. SG (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Eric Paschall PF (Out), Damion Lee SG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Suns are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Warriors.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Thanks almost entirely to Steph Curry's superhuman efforts and Draymond Green's resurgence as an elite defender and playmaker, the Warriors are headed to the NBA's play-in tournament. But the Memphis Grizzlies are keeping the utmost pressure on them to avoid the 9-10 game and, thus, single-elimination.
It's going to be very difficult for the Warriors to avoid slipping tonight, as they face a highly consistent (and just generally really good) Suns squad that can still catch Utah for the West's top seed.
The Suns lost 123-110 to the Lakers Sunday night after Anthony Davis felt urgency for the first time since last October and uncorked his best game of the season on them. Among many things Monty Williams has done well in a possible COY campaign is get his team to bounce back, at a shining 21-5 ATS following an ATS loss.
The Warriors will be on a back-to-back after scoring a tough 119-116 W against Utah last night, in which Curry and Green both played 37 minutes. Having Curry possibly gassed won't be ideal with uber-irritator Chris Paul marking him all night.
Furthermore, the Suns can stick Mikal Bridges on Green, busting up the Warriors' pick-and-roll game by switching a rangy All-Defense contender onto Curry. Containing Curry is an extremely relative term, but Phoenix is a good bet to do so in theory.
Adding the Suns' motivation, rest, and matchup advantages to their clearly superior talent, we don't see them bucking an amazing trend in a bounce-back spot. Shine on.
PREDICTION: Phoenix -5.0 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Suns have been just mashing Overs lately. They've hit six in a row and are 10-2 to the Over in their past 12 games.
Phoenix has flexed its defensive edge most of this season, but is scoring in bunches down the stretch, at 119.8 ppg over their last six outings. The Warriors are averaging an identical 119.8 in their last five as well, despite the absences of several backup scorers.
But don't get your hopes up thinking this is an auto-shootout.
The Suns are still playing at the league's third-slowest pace over their elongated Over run, and we like them to control tempo more so than GSW, the NBA's fourth-fastest team on the season.
There's also the Warriors' lack of rest to factor in here. They'll be less apt to try and run-and-gun on tired legs when they're still the NBA's fifth-rated defense (with the Suns just behind them in sixth).
Both these teams can flex on either side of the ball, but the Suns do it much better and should be able to impose their will on this game script, against a total that's been set fairly high by the two sides' recent offensive outbursts. Fade the trend.
PREDICTION: Under 230 (-110)
Player prop pick
Draymond Green continues to be an all-around stat stuffer, even if he's averaging his fewest-ever points as a starter.
Green is averaging 29.7 points+rebounds+assists in six May games, and with Curry undoubtedly being the focus of Phoenix's D, Green will by default command a greater role in creating looks for the rest of the Warriors.
Green's total for the base popcorn stats sits at 25.5, a total he's surpassed in five of his past six games. With the extra onus both this matchup and the Warriors' play-in urgency requires, count on him doing it again tonight.
PREDICTION: Draymond Green Over 25.5 pts+rebs+asts (-113)
Suns vs Warriors betting card
- Phoenix -5.5 (-110)
- Under 230 (-110)
- Draymond Green Over 25.5 pts+rebs+asts (-113)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 10:20 a.m. ET
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