The Philadelphia 76ers are on the home stretch of a simply dominant regular season, after an offseason house-cleaning brought their organization a renewed sense of purpose in their post-Process evolution.
With a victory tonight over the Indiana Pacers, Philly will all but clinch the top seed in the East, but they may have to do so without would-be MVP contender Joel Embiid.
Check out our free 76ers vs. Pacers NBA betting picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 11.
76ers vs Pacers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia went up as a 6.5-point favorite late Monday night at DraftKings, dipped to -6 midmorning today and onto -5.5 early this afternoon. As of 6 p.m. ET, the 76ers remain -5.5, although ticket count and money are both running 4/1 on Philly. The total moved from 236.5 to 237 a few times, then dropped to 234, with 55 percent of tickets/72 percent of money on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game76ers at Pacers betting preview
Injuries
76ers: Joel Embiid C (Questionable), Matisse Thybulle SG (Out), Furkan Korkmaz SG (Out).
Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon PG (Out), Jeremy Lamb SG (Out), Myles Turner C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Sixers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Pacers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This matchup entirely hinges on Embiid's status. The Sixers' superstar center is listed as questionable with a non-COVID illness, and it could really go either way as to whether he plays.
On one hand, it's prudent to keep Embiid rested. On the other, this is just an illness, so he doesn't risk worsening anything by giving it a go, and would get plenty of more rest once Philly locks up the 1-seed.
If Embiid plays, this spread is a wrap, especially since Myles Turner — with whom Embiid will battle for an All-Defense nod — remains out. Domantas Sabonis is many things, but a rim protector isn't one of them, and he'd be completely useless against an apex post and face-up monster like Embiid.
Even if Embiid doesn't play, the Sixers are essentially a .500 team when he sits (9-10 on the season), and already beat the Pacers without him on January 31, easily covering as 2.5-point dogs in a 9-point victory.
Ben Simmons will still be able to get to the hoop at will, and consistently find open shooters when help inevitably comes. With the Pacers down Turner, as well as Malcolm Brogdon and Jeremy Lamb, they'll be giving up both the talent and depth they'd need to make this game competitive.
Keep an eye on the injury report here. If there's even a chance of Embiid playing, there's value in this line.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia -6 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Pacers continue to be true to their name and make a mockery of Over/Under totals. Indiana's been playing at break-neck speed for the past month, "pacing" the NBA with its fastest rate of play.
As a result, the Pacers are 7-2 to the Over in their past nine games, bolstering what's now the NBA's best season-long Over record at 41-26-1. Indiana is averaging an obscene 242.6 total points over its past 11 games and has seen at least one team score 130 in seven of nine.
As much as the Sixers are an elite defensive team, Indiana's drag race has sucked just about every team into its spin cycle. Only incompetent squads seem to be failing to meet serve — the three opponents to hit the Under in Indiana's last 13 games are Cleveland, Sacramento, and Detroit.
If Embiid plays, expect him to maul the Pacers on the block. Even if he sits, Philly can still put up points in a hurry, especially if Simmons isn't walled off from the paint. Keeping in mind the inverse: Embiid's absence also keeps his elite rim protection out of Indiana's way.
The total is high here, but the Pacers have faced a higher number six times in their past eight outings. At 5-1 O/U in those games, it doesn't seem to be bothering them much.
PREDICTION: Over 234 (-110)
Player prop pick
Injuries have left the Pacers limping to the finish line, but Sabonis has been absolutely filling it up while his team gets back to full strength.
Using Indiana's blistering pace as stat-padding steroids, Sabonis has averaged a ridiculous 51.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists in May, way above his 39.5 total in that market tonight.
Obviously, Embiid playing would hamper Sabonis' efforts, but a total this low is counting on a massive regression from his recent output. Embiid can make life difficult for Sabonis, but the Lithuanian can contribute in so many ways to push this over a fairly reasonable total.
Given the complexity of this market, and the reasonable juice, we're hammering a bet that Sabonis will almost surely eclipse if Embiid does sit.
PREDICTION: Domantas Sabonis Over 39.5 pts+rebs+asts (-113)
76ers vs Pacers betting card
- Philadelphia -6 (-110)
- Over 234 (-110)
- Domantas Sabonis Over 39.5 pts+rebs+asts (-113)
Picks made on 5/11/2021 at 12:30 p.m. ET
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