The New York Knicks begin their playoff run tonight at Madison Square Garden as the Atlanta Hawks visit the Big Apple for Game 1 of their first-round series.
We break down Kalshi’s win probability markets and deliver some Hawks vs. Knicks predictions to help guide your NBA picks for Saturday, April 18.
Who will win Hawks vs Knicks Game 1?
Hawks win probability: 34% (+194)
Knicks win probability: 68% (-212)
Although Atlanta prevailed 111-99 in the last head-to-head meeting at MSG, oddsmakers are trading the Knicks at 68% (-212) to prevail this time around.
Our prediction: Atlanta to win
The Hawks have been hot since the break, and their lethal combination of strong defense and a barrage of three-pointers gives them a puncher’s chance to emerge victorious and complete the upset at Madison Square Garden.
Read more in Zak Hanshew's full Hawks vs. Knicks predictions.
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More Hawks vs Knicks prediction markets
You're certainly not limited to the main game outcome for Hawks vs. Knicks at Kalshi; you also have options to trade on the spread, total, and more, among other NBA odds markets.
You can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on the Knicks -6.5 spread means the Knicks will cover, while "No" means the Hawks will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter).
Hawks vs Knicks spread and total at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Knicks -6.5 | 48¢ (+108) | 53¢ (-113) |
| Over 216.5 points | 54¢ (-117) | 47¢ (+113) |
Our predictions: Knicks -6.5 — No
After the All-Star break, Atlanta owned the seventh-best offensive rating (119.8), second-best defensive rating (109.5), and third-best net rating (10.3).
Given the team’s recent success and advantage from the perimeter, take the Hawks to cover a modest spread on the road.
Other Hawks vs Knicks prediction markets available
- Jalen Brunson 25+ points (Yes: 65¢)
- CJ McCollum 4+ assists (Yes: 54¢)
- Jalen Johnson 11+ rebounds (Yes: 49¢)
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts," which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Knicks win today?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Hawks vs Knicks at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in 49 states (excluding Nevada) and D.C., including many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
