Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks have had to wait a while, but will look to begin a new winning streak when they host Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies Monday night.
The Mavs’ last game was a thrilling 121-118 defeat at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers before the severe winter storm in Texas shut down operations for a while. But the NBA odds seem to not expecting much rust from Dallas, setting the home team as 5-point NBA betting favorites.
But does the layoff mean there is value with underdog Memphis? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Maverick on Monday, February 22 with tipoff scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET.
Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks betting preview
Injuries
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SG (Out), Jaren Jackson PF (Out), Killian Tillie C (Out).
Mavericks: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-0 in the Grizzlies' last eight games as an underdog and is 6-0 in Mavericks' last six games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks.
NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDallas moved from -4.5 to -5 very early this morning at DraftKings, and the number hasn't budged all day, remaining -5 as of 5:45 p.m. ET. The Mavericks are landing 73 percent of bets and 71 percent of money on the spread. The total is more active at DK, opening 229.5 and reaching 233.5 mid-afternoon before dialing back to 232.5. The Over is getting 76 percent of bets and 89 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the spread (ATS) pick
Yes, it has been eight days since the Mavericks have last played a game, which is too bad for them because they were finally starting to get into a groove in February, winning five of their last seven games and averaging 125.4 points per game over that span.
After a slow start to the season, the Mavs have really turned it around and once again look like the team that led the NBA in offensive rating a season ago. In fact, they rank second in the NBA in offensive rating in the month of February.
The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have been a little more inconsistent. Memphis is 4-6 SU up over its last 10 games, ranking 15th in offensive rating. The Grizz have averaged 121.3 points in the wins, but just 106.7 ppg in the losses. It doesn’t help that the Grizzlies’ injury report is starting to get full, as at least two starters (Jackson, Brooks) are expected to miss this game.
Mix the Grizzlies’ erratic scoring with a defense that has struggled lately (more on that in a moment), and we like the Mavericks to return to the court with a bang.
PREDICTION: Mavericks -5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
While the side in this matchup might be a little tougher to predict, the total appears to be much juicier.
As mentioned, the Grizzlies are struggling on defense in February, ranking 25th in defensive rating, but to total bettors’ delight, the Mavericks are even worse, coming in at 29th for the month. On top of that, the Mavs and Grizz rank 28th and 29th, respectively, when it comes to opponent field goal percentage.
With two of the most exciting young players going head-to-head in this matchup and all the trends point towards the Over, expect there to be plenty of buckets and bet those trends to continue.
PREDICTION: Over 231 (-110)
Player prop pick
If there is a place the Grizzlies will have an edge in this matchup, it should be on the boards. The Grizzlies rank 12th in rebounding percentage, compared to 27th for the Mavericks. Dallas also gives up the sixth most opponent rebounds per game.
While Jaren Jackson Jr. will miss this game, that should create plenty of opportunities for Jonas Valanciunas to clean up the glass in the one. The Grizzlies’ big man has a rebounding total of 11.5 for this matchup—a number he has gone over in four of his last five games and six of his last eight.
PREDICTION: Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
Grizzlies vs Mavericks betting card
- Mavericks -5 (-110)
- Over 231 (-110)
- Jonas Valanciunas Over 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
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