The Boston Celtics dictated all terms in Game 1 against the Dallas Mavericks, but even the boldest Mavs vs. Celtics predictions did not expect Boston to hold a 37-20 lead after the first quarter.
If the Celtics have a similar opening frame tonight, then this could be a quick NBA Finals. Should our free NBA picks expect that before tip on Sunday, June 9, at 8:00 ET?
Mavs vs Celtics first quarter predictions for Game 2
Offensive onslaught
Luka Doncic hit a layup with 6:38 remaining in the first quarter to take a 15-14 lead on Thursday. And then the Boston Celtics took off. In less than six minutes, they rattled off a 23-5 run sparked largely by Kristaps Porzingis.
Coming off the bench for the first time this year, Porzingis scored nine points on five shots, going 4-for-5. To some degree, it seemed Dallas was not ready for how spry Porzingis was coming off a five-week absence due to a soleus strain.
However, Porzingis was not the only offensive piece for Boston. Derrick White started the surge with back-to-back 3-pointers. Jayson Tatum added one of his own. So there's plenty of reason to think the Celtics can continue to score even if the Mavericks adjust to Porzingis.
Dallas scoring only five points in that 5:47 stretch was itself baffling. No team should reach the NBA Finals and proceed to go 2-for-14 across half a quarter. The Mavs should produce more points tonight.
One offense should continue as it showed to start Game 1, even if not quite as scorching. The other should be able to avoid the kind of shooting malaise that put the series opener effectively out of reach. Such a combination should further the Boston trend that nine of its last 12 first quarters would have cleared this total.
NBA Finals first quarter prop: Over 55.5 (+100 at FanDuel)
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Acknowledge the obvious psychological shift
The Celtics have spent the last three days hearing how great they are. They crushed the Mavericks in Game 1. The praise was earned. Dallas spent the last three days studying film and looking for appropriate adjustments. That is necessary following an 18-point loss.
That intangible of immediate motivation should be applied to only the first quarter. Boston’s lingering satisfaction will not last the entire game.
Coming out strong has been a consistent piece of the Mavericks’ postseason. Well, at least, coming out of the gates strong in individual games has been a consistent piece of the Mavs’ postseason, not so much in series themselves given they have lost three of four Game 1s.
Dallas has covered 10 of 18 first-quarter spreads and has gone 5-3 ATS when an underdog, one of those losses obviously coming on Thursday. Boston has gone 3-6 ATS in the first quarter in its last nine games.
Game 1’s early rout should not wipe away all confidence in what has been shown so far this postseason.
NBA Finals first quarter prop: Mavericks +2 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Holiday value
This is a thought based entirely on the value of the number; it will most likely not turn into a winning bet. The wager should be placed accordingly, perhaps a quarter of a unit.
Since Kristaps Porzingis was sidelined by that knot atop his calf, Jrue Holiday has taken the first shot of the game in two of 11 games. Neither went in, but that rate is worth noting.
Porzingis is likely to remain out of the starting lineup, just as he was in Game 1. Coming off the bench helps Boston manage his workload a touch, and it better matches the 7-foot-2 Latvian with the 7-foot-1 Dereck Lively II. Lively plays well above 38-year-old Al Horford; the Celtics need Porzingis to stymie lob looks for him.
An 11-game sample size is worrying, but Holiday has taken the first shot on 15.7% of Boston games this season, the second-highest rate on the team, behind only Jaylen Brown. Holiday has not made many of those looks, that is the catch.
He did not make either of his first shots in these 11 games with Porzingis sidelined or coming off the bench, but the fact he's gotten those looks argues for the value here. At +1,000, Holiday is priced far too long. If Brown does not take the first Celtics shot, Holiday just may.
This approach discounts a good amount of Dallas worry. The Mavs could take the first shot of the game, especially with Daniel Gafford jumping for the opening tip against Horford. Boston’s defense dictates terms too aggressively. In 15 postseason games, the Celtics have won the opening tip just eight times, but they have taken the first shot 10 times.
Jrue Holiday prop: First basket scorer (+1,000 at FanDuel)
