The Oklahoma City Thunder are crafting a historic title defense, rolling into tonight’s matchup with Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks on a 13-game heater.
At 21-1 overall and a spotless 10-0 at home, OKC looks unstoppable, and my Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions highlight Jalen Williams as the X-factor as he ramps back up to full strength.
Dive into my NBA picks for this December 5 showdown, which could end up far more competitive than the spread implies.
Mavericks vs Thunder prediction
Mavericks vs Thunder best bet: Jalen Williams Over 24.5 points + assists (-115)
It's easy to forget that the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks squared off in an ultra-competitive Western Conference semifinals series in 2024.
A lot has changed since then, and Jalen Williams' growth off the back of that experience is propelling OKC towards dynasty territory.
Sure, the Thunder managed just fine without Williams through the first month of this season, but the champs have an extra gear when J-Dub is rolling. With his wrist injury behind him and his minutes climbing, I see him starring for OKC tonight.
Williams is coming off a strong outing against the Golden State Warriors earlier this week, where he finished with 22 points and six assists, and this combo Over offers great value against a Dallas team missing Dereck Lively III and possibly P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, too.
The Thunder's own injury report is another reason to like J-Dub in this spot. The hosts will be without Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein here, so the rotation will likely get a little tighter for Mark Daigneault.
Though Williams' scoring is the driving force for this prop pick, don't sleep on his playmaking. After averaging 5.1 APG last year, he's dished 19 dimes in his three contests so far this season.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams reunited, there's no sign of OKC slowing down right now.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay
Cooper Flagg has found a nice rhythm over the past week, and he's well placed for a solid rebound tally tonight, especially if the Mavs are short-handed in the frontcourt. He's grabbed 7+ boards in six of his last seven games.
Dallas has shown encouraging signs during a three-game win streak, which includes victories over the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat, so this line feels too high, particularly with the potential for an Anthony Davis takeover. The visitors are 4-1 ATS in their past five contests while the Thunder are 2-3 ATS in that same span.
Mavericks vs Thunder SGP
- Jalen Williams Over 24.5 points + assists
- Cooper Flagg Over 6.5 rebounds
- Mavericks +15
Our "from downtown" SGP: Rim Protection!
With Anthony Davis and Chet Holmgren around the rim, and with OKC boasting the NBA's stingiest defense, I'm riding with the Under.
That's been a winning ticket in three of the last four meetings between these teams, and the Dallas offense may stall when AD heads to the bench.
Mavericks vs Thunder SGP
- Jalen Williams Over 24.5 points + assists
- Cooper Flagg Over 6.5 rebounds
- Mavericks +15
- Under 229.5
Mavericks vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Mavericks +14.5 (-105) | Thunder -14.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Mavericks +775 | Thunder -1400
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Under is 7-2 in the Mavericks' last nine games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
How to watch Mavericks vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Friday, December 5, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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